相关论文: Predicting Drought and Subsidence Risks in France
Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has urged many governments in the world to enforce a strict lockdown where all nonessential businesses are closed and citizens are ordered to stay at home. One of the consequences of this…
In the current insurance literature, prediction of insurance claims in the regression problem is often performed with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from several drawbacks: (i) model misspecification,…
Drought is a complex environmental phenomenon that affects millions of people and communities all over the globe and is too elusive to be accurately predicted. This is mostly due to the scalability and variability of the web of…
Extreme climate events, e.g., droughts, floods, heat waves, and freezes, are becoming more frequent and intense with severe global socio-economic impacts. Growing populations and economic activity leads to increased exposure to these…
Irrigation decision systems and water need models have been important research topics in agriculture since 90s. They improve the efficiency of crop yields, provide an appropriate use of water on the earth and so, prevent the water scarcity…
The high temporal variability of wind power generation represents a major challenge for the realization of a sustainable energy supply. Large backup and storage facilities are necessary to secure the supply in periods of low renewable…
The water circulation in the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere continuum and particularly the soil erosion induced by water are problems of main concern in the new era of climate change. The present paper aims to provide a mathematical tool to…
In this study, we will discuss recent developments in risk management of the global financial and insurance business with respect to sustainable development. So far climate change aspects have been the dominant aspect in managing…
Spatial distribution of the human population is distinctly heterogeneous, e.g. showing significant difference in the population density between urban and rural areas. In the historical perspective, i.e. on the timescale of centuries, the…
In the face of climate change-induced droughts, vulnerable regions encounter severe threats to food security, demanding urgent humanitarian assistance. This paper introduces a causal inference framework for the Horn of Africa, aiming to…
Natural disasters affect hundreds of millions of people worldwide every year. Early warning, humanitarian response and recovery mechanisms can be improved by using big data sources. Measuring the different dimensions of the impact of…
In this paper we assess the correlation between recent observing runs (2018 and 2019) and inclement weather, and demonstrate that these observing runs have seen much more rainfall than would otherwise be expected, an increase of over 200%.…
We analyse the probability densities of daily rainfall amounts at a variety of locations on the Earth. The observed distributions of the amount of rainfall fit well to a q-exponential distribution with exponent q close to q=1.3. We discuss…
Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are…
We focus on large blackouts in electric distribution systems caused by extreme winds. Such events have a large cost and impact on customers. To quantify resilience to these events, we formulate large event risk and show how to calculate it…
Climate change poses substantial risks to the global economy. Kotz, Levermann and Wenz (Nature, 2024) statistically analyzed economic and climate data, finding significant projected damages until mid-century and a divergence in outcomes…
Climate change affects occurrences of floods and droughts worldwide. However, predicting climate impacts over individual watersheds is difficult, primarily because accurate hydrological forecasts require models that are calibrated to past…
Knowing and modelling the migration phenomena and especially the social and economic consequences have a theoretical and practical importance, being related to their consequences for development, economic progress (or as appropriate,…
The finite sensitivity of instruments or detection methods means that data sets in many areas of astronomy, for example cosmological or exoplanet surveys, are necessarily systematically incomplete. Such data sets, where the population being…