相关论文: Discovery of Bayes' Table at Tunbridge Wells

The Bayesian statistical paradigm uses the language of probability to express uncertainty about the phenomena that generate observed data. Probability distributions thus characterize Bayesian analysis, with the rules of probability used to…

The Bayesian Classification represents a supervised learning method as well as a statistical method for classification. Assumes an underlying probabilistic model and it allows us to capture uncertainty about the model in a principled way by…

Bayesian statistics is based on the subjective definition of probability as {\it ``degree of belief''} and on Bayes' theorem, the basic tool for assigning probabilities to hypotheses combining {\it a priori} judgements and experimental…

Convergence of the Bayes posterior measure is considered in canonical statistical settings where observations sit on a geometrical object such as a compact manifold, or more generally on a compact metric space verifying some conditions. A…

Bayes [Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. 53 (1763) 370--418; 54 296--325] introduced the observed likelihood function to statistical inference and provided a weight function to calibrate the parameter; he also introduced a confidence…

A common problem faced in statistical inference is drawing conclusions from paired comparisons, in which two objects compete and one is declared the victor. A probabilistic approach to such a problem is the Bradley-Terry model, first…

This paper seeks to provide a thorough account of the ubiquitous nature of the Bayesian paradigm in modern statistics, data science and artificial intelligence. Once maligned, on the one hand by those who philosophically hated the very idea…

This paper offers a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian inference, combining historical context, theoretical foundations, and core analytical examples. Beginning with Bayes' theorem and the philosophical distinctions between Bayesian and…

In this letter, we consider two sets of observations defined as subspace signals embedded in noise and we wish to analyze the distance between these two subspaces. The latter entails evaluating the angles between the subspaces, an issue…

Bayesian Inference is a powerful approach to data analysis that is based almost entirely on probability theory. In this approach, probabilities model {\it uncertainty} rather than randomness or variability. This thesis is composed of a…

This paper is an invited commentary on Tamas Budavari's presentation, "On statistical cross-identification in astronomy," for the Statistical Challenges in Modern Astronomy V conference held at Pennsylvania State University in June 2011. I…

This paper reviews the growing field of Bayesian prediction. Bayes point and interval prediction are defined and exemplified and situated in statistical prediction more generally. Then, four general approaches to Bayes prediction are…

The Bayes factor, the data-based updating factor of the prior to posterior odds of two hypotheses, is a natural measure of statistical evidence for one hypothesis over the other. We show how Bayes factors can also be used for parameter…

The application of Bayesian methods in cosmology and astrophysics has flourished over the past decade, spurred by data sets of increasing size and complexity. In many respects, Bayesian methods have proven to be vastly superior to more…

Modern statistical software and machine learning libraries are enabling semi-automated statistical inference. Within this context, it appears easier and easier to try and fit many models to the data at hand, reversing thereby the Fisherian…

The 16-year old Blaise Pascal found a way to determine if 6 points lie on a conic using a straightedge. Nearly 400 years later, we develop a method that uses a straightedge to check whether 10 points lie on a plane cubic curve.

Nested sampling has emerged as a valuable tool for Bayesian analysis, in particular for determining the Bayesian evidence. The method is based on a specific type of random sampling of the likelihood function and prior volume of the…

The superstatistics approach recently introduced by Beck [C. Beck and E.G.D. Cohen, Physica A 322, 267 (2003)] is a formalism that aims to deal in a unifying way with a large variety of complex nonequilibrium systems, for which…

Clustering is widely studied in statistics and machine learning, with applications in a variety of fields. As opposed to classical algorithms which return a single clustering solution, Bayesian nonparametric models provide a posterior over…

Empirical Bayes methods have been around for a long time and have a wide range of applications. These methods provide a way in which historical data can be aggregated to provide estimates of the posterior mean. This thesis revisits some of…