相关论文: Emergence and mitigation of extreme events in a pa…
This work proposes an innovative approach using machine learning to predict extreme events in time series of chaotic dynamical systems. The research focuses on the time series of the H\'enon map, a two-dimensional model known for its…
The object of this paper is twofold. From one side we study the dichotomy, in terms of the Extremal Index of the possible Extreme Value Laws, when the rare events are centred around periodic or non periodic points. Then we build a general…
In [1] we present an extension of Prime Event Structures by a mechanism to express dynamicity in the causal relation. More precisely we add the possibility that the occurrence of an event can add or remove causal dependencies between events…
Extinction of an epidemic or a species is a rare event that occurs due to a large, rare stochastic fluctuation. Although the extinction process is dynamically unstable, it follows an optimal path that maximizes the probability of…
In environmental science applications, extreme events frequently exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure, which is difficult to describe flexibly and estimate in a computationally efficient way using state-of-art parametric…
The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events since the beginning of the 21st century has led to the development of new methods to attribute extreme events to anthropogenic climate change. The way in which the extreme event is defined…
We introduce and analyze the stability of a class of event-triggered extremum-seeking algorithms designed to solve resource-aware, model-free, optimization problems. Leveraging recent advances in Lie-Bracket Averaging for hybrid systems, we…
Predicting extreme events in chaotic systems, characterized by rare but intensely fluctuating properties, is of great importance due to their impact on the performance and reliability of a wide range of systems. Some examples include…
A natural phenomenon occurring in a living system is an outcome of the dynamics of the specific biological network underlying the phenomenon. The collective dynamics have both deterministic and stochastic components. The stochastic nature…
Observed accidents have been the main resource for road safety analysis over the past decades. Although such reliance seems quite straightforward, the rare nature of these events has made safety difficult to assess, especially for new and…
This article presents methods for estimating extreme probabilities, beyond the range of the observations. These methods are model-free and applicable to almost any sample size. They are grounded in order statistics theory and have a wide…
A class of models is introduced describing the evolution of population species whose carrying capacities are functionals of these populations. The functional dependence of the carrying capacities reflects the fact that the correlations…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
The theory of Extreme Physical Information (EPI) is used to deduce a probability density function (PDF) of a system that exhibits a power law tail. The computed PDF is useful to study and fit several observed distributions in complex…
In this paper, we study a class of self-exciting point processes. The intensity of the point process has a nonlinear dependence on the past history and time. When a new jump occurs, the intensity increases and we expect more jumps to come.…
The paper extends an impulsive control-theoretical framework towards dynamic systems in the space of measures. We consider a transport equation describing the time-evolution of a conservative "mass" (probability measure), which represents…
This paper investigates the use of extreme value theory for modelling the distribution of demand-net-of-wind for capacity adequacy assessment. Extreme value theory approaches are well-established and mathematically justified methods for…
What is the best description that we can construct of a thermodynamic system that is not in equilibrium, given only one, or a few, extra parameters over and above those needed for a description of the same system at equilibrium? Here, we…
The two paradigmatic nonlinear oscillatory models with parametric excitation are studied. The authors provide theoretical evidence for the appearance of extreme events (EEs) in those systems. First, the authors consider a well known Lienard…
Stochastic dynamical systems allow modelling of transitions induced by disturbances, in particular from an attracting equilibrium and crossing the stable manifold of a saddle. In the small-noise limit, the probability of such transitions is…