相关论文: A note on the Markovian SIR epidemic on a random g…

This paper is concerned with stochastic SIR and SEIR epidemic models on random networks in which individuals may rewire away from infected neighbors at some rate $\omega$ (and reconnect to non-infectious individuals with probability…

Epidemic threshold is one of the most important features of the epidemic dynamics. Through a lot of numerical simulations in classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) models on various types of…

We propose two SIR models which incorporate sociological behavior of groups of individuals. It is these differences in behaviors which impose different infection rates on the individual susceptible populations, rather than biological…

The role of cooperative effects (i.e. synergy) in transmission of infection is investigated analytically and numerically for epidemics following the rules of Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model defined on random regular graphs.…

In this paper, we are concerned with SIR epidemics in a random environment on complete graphs, where every edges are assigned with i.i.d. weights. Our main results give large and moderate deviation principles of sample paths of this model.

The simplest epidemiologic model composed by mutually exclusive compartments SIR (susceptible-infected-susceptible) is presented to describe a reality. From health concerns to situations related with marketing, informatics or even…

Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…

To better describe the spread of a disease, we extend a discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model of Tuckwell and Williams. We assume the dependence on time of the number of daily encounters and include a parameter to represent a…

We consider a continuous-time Markov chain model of SIR disease dynamics with two levels of mixing. For this so-called stochastic households model, we provide two methods for inferring the model parameters---governing within-household…

Seasonal variations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a well-established phenomenon, driven by factors such as climate changes, social behaviors, and ecological interactions that influence host susceptibility and transmission…

In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent $p-$coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…

In this paper, we are concerned with the stochastic susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on the complete graph with $n$ vertices. This model has two parameters, which are the infection rate and the recovery rate. By…

A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…

Networked SIR models have become essential workhorses in the modeling of epidemics, their inception, propagation and control. Here, and building on this venerable tradition, we report on the emergence of a remarkable self-organization of…

Understanding models which represent the invasion of network-based systems by infectious agents can give important insights into many real-world situations, including the prevention and control of infectious diseases and computer viruses.…

This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…

The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…

In a previous paper Sharkey et al. [13] proved the exactness of closures at the level of triples for Markovian SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) dynamics on tree-like networks. This resulted in a deterministic representation of the…

The celebrated Kermack-McKendric model of epidemics studies the transmission of a disease in a population where each individual is initially susceptible (S), may become infective (I) and then removed or recovered (R) and plays no further…

We propose an extension of the classical susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model that incorporates the effects of spatial propagation of an epidemic through a small number of additional compartments. The model is designed to capture…