相关论文: When to end a lock down? How fast must vaccination…

Absent a drug or vaccine, containing epidemic outbreaks is achieved by means of social distancing, specifically mobility restrictions and lock-downs. Such measures impose a hurtful toll on the economy, and are difficult to sustain for…

Widespread vaccination campaigns have changed the landscape for COVID-19, vastly altering symptoms and reducing morbidity and mortality. We estimate trends in mortality by month of admission and vaccination status among those hospitalised…

The number of new infections per day is a key quantity for effective epidemic management. It can be estimated relatively directly by testing of random population samples. Without such direct epidemiological measurement, other approaches are…

In a world being hit by waves of COVID-19, vaccination is a light on the horizon. However, the roll-out of vaccination strategies and their influence on the pandemic are still open problems. In order to compare the effect of various…

We used Bayesian model inversion to estimate epidemic parameters from the reported case and death rates from seven countries using data from late January 2020 to April 5th 2020. Two distinct generative model types were employed: first a…

As new COVID-19 variants continue to emerge globally, we develop an SISI-type mathematical model to determine whether the transmission risks arising when such a new variant enters Indonesia can be mitigated by solely accelerating the…

We investigated the negative relationship between mortality and COVID-19 vaccination at ecological level, which has been established through clinical trials and other investigations at the individual level. We conducted an exploratory,…

The traditional long-term solutions for epidemic control involve eradication or population immunity. Here, we analytically derive the existence of a third viable solution: a stable equilibrium at low case numbers, where…

Most vaccines require multiple doses, the first to induce recognition and antibody production and subsequent doses to boost the primary response and achieve optimal protection. We show that properly prioritizing the administration of first…

An insufficient supply of effective SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in most countries demands an effective vaccination strategy to minimize the damage caused by the disease. Currently, many countries vaccinate their population in descending order of age…

On 19th March, the World Health Organisation declared a pandemic. Through this global spread, many nations have witnessed exponential growth of confirmed cases brought under control by severe mass quarantine or lockdown measures. However,…

Since the recent introduction of several viable vaccines for SARS-CoV-2, vaccination uptake has become the key factor that will determine our success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that game theory and social network models…

By the peak of COVID-19 restrictions on April 8, 2020, up to 1.5 billion students across 188 countries were by the suspension of physical attendance in schools. Schools were among the first services to reopen as vaccination campaigns…

In this work, we simulate the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in a population modeled as a network of groups wherein infection can propagate both via intra-group and via inter-group interactions. Our results emphasize the importance of…

Several non-pharmaceutical interventions have been proposed to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. On the large scale, these empirical solutions, often associated with extended and complete lockdowns, attempt to minimize the costs…

Using a simple economic model in which social-distancing reduces contagion, we study the implications of waning immunity for the epidemiological dynamics and social activity. If immunity wanes, we find that COVID-19 likely becomes endemic…

Background: The impact of individual non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) such as state-wide stay-at-home orders, school closures and gathering size limitations, on the COVID-19 epidemic is unknown. Understanding the impact that above…

The limited availability of COVID-19 vaccines has prompted extensive research on optimal vaccination strategies. Previous studies have considered various non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccine efficacy, and distribution strategies. In…

Infectious diseases and human behavior are intertwined. On one side, our movements and interactions are the engines of transmission. On the other, the unfolding of viruses might induce changes to our daily activities. While intuitive, our…

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPI) such as banning public events or instituting lockdowns have been widely applied around the world to control the current COVID-19 pandemic. Typically, this type of intervention is imposed when an…