相关论文: When to end a lock down? How fast must vaccination…

Background: We estimate the overall quality of response to the Covid-19 pandemic in the first 18 months, using a small number of known parameters and a proposed method that is reasonably robust to the uncertainties in the data. Methods: The…

A second wave of SARS-CoV-2 is unfolding in dozens of countries. However, this second wave manifests itself strongly in new reported cases, but less in death counts compared to the first wave. Over the past three months in Germany, the…

Vaccination against COVID-19 with the recently approved mRNA vaccines BNT162b2 (BioNTech/Pfizer) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) is currently underway in a large number of countries. However, high incidence rates and rapidly spreading SARS-CoV-2…

Following the highly restrictive measures adopted by many countries for combating the current pandemic, the number of individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 and the associated number of deaths is steadily decreasing. This fact, together with…

The Coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus represents an unprecedented crisis for our planet. It is a bane of the \"uber connected world that we live in that this virus has affected almost all countries and…

The pandemic caused by the novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV2 has been responsible for life threatening health complications, and extreme pressure on healthcare systems. While preventive and definite curative medical interventions are yet to…

Purpose: Only few companies were able to produce vaccine again COVID-19. Thus, one producer supplied it to many countries. The distribution was not effective. Some countries overstocked the vaccine while other countries were not able to buy…

In the context of the recent COVID-19 outbreak, quarantine has been used to "flatten the curve" and slow the spread of the disease. In this paper, we show that this is not the only benefit of quarantine for the mitigation of an SIR epidemic…

With COVID-19 having emerged as the most widespread human pandemic disease in a century, the need to control its spread to avoid massive loss of life became more than necessary, and extremely fast. Several vaccines were developed and the…

Governments across the world are currently facing the task of selecting suitable intervention strategies to cope with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a highly challenging task, since harsh measures may result in economic…

Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…

The COVID-19 vaccine development, manufacturing, transportation, and administration proved an extreme logistics operation of global magnitude. Global vaccination levels, however, remain a key concern in preventing the emergence of new…

Countries around the world implement nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Design of efficient NPIs requires identification of the structure of the disease transmission network. We here identify the key…

Given multiple new COVID-19 variants are continuously emerging, non-pharmaceutical interventions are still primary control strategies to curb the further spread of coronavirus. However, implementing strict interventions over extended…

We develop a simple 3-dimensional iterative map model to forecast the global spread of the coronavirus disease. Our model contains at most two fitting parameters, which we determine from the data supplied by the world health organisation…

This article considers the minimization of the total number of infected individuals over the course of an epidemic in which the rate of infectious contacts can be reduced by time-dependent nonpharmaceutical interventions. The societal and…

Despite 93.1% to 95.8% of the UK adult population having been vaccinated and currently 83.5% to 89.8% of adults having received at least two doses (1), and despite many households testing twice a week with lateral flow tests (2), R at the…

This study investigates the influence of different types of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on epidemic progression using SIR compartmental models. We analyze the optimization of two distinct targets: the final epidemic size and the…

Many countries are managing COVID-19 epidemic by switching between lighter and heavier restrictions. While an open-close and a close-open cycle have comparable socio-economic costs, the former leads to a much heavier burden in terms of…

In this study, we formulate a mathematical model incorporating age specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 to evaluate the role of vaccination and treatment strategies in reducing the size of COVID-19 burden. Initially, we establish the…