量化安全校园活动的协议
摘要
在 2020 年 4 月 8 日 COVID-19 限制措施高峰时，188 个国家多达 15 亿学生因暂停到校上课而受影响。随着疫苗接种推进，学校是最早重新开放的服务之一。随着新变异株与感染浪潮的出现，现在的问题是为持续校园活动寻找安全协议。我们需要在不同疫苗接种覆盖率下理解这些协议的可靠性，因为许多国家人口接种比例很低，包括乌干达覆盖率仅约 8%。我们研究不同协议下面对面课程的影响，并量化城市中受感染的额外人数。以学校关闭时的感染传播为基线，我们评估了通风不良教室中实体到校上课的影响。我们发现：（i）仅佩戴低质量口罩复课，即使所有教职工接种，也会导致全市病例数近五倍增长；（ii）学生佩戴高质量口罩、教职工佩戴 N95 复课，导致约三倍增长；（iii）结合高质量口罩与主动监测，即便低接种覆盖也可安全开展活动。这些结果凸显了良好口罩佩戴的有效性。相比 ICU 费用，高质量口罩成本低廉且有助于遏制传播。只要实施正确措施组合，课程可安全开展。
引用
@article{arxiv.2204.07148,
title = {Quantifying protocols for safe school activities},
author = {Juliano Genari and Guilherme Tegoni Goedert and Sergio H. A. Lira and Krerley Oliveira and Adriano Barbosa and Allysson Lima and Jose Augusto Silva and Hugo Oliveira and Maurıcio Maciel and Ismael Ledoino and Lucas Resende and Edmilson Roque dos Santos and Dan Marchesin and Claudio J. Struchiner and Tiago Pereira},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2204.07148},
year = {2022}
}
备注
JG and GTG contributed equally. KO and SL collected data; AB, TV, AL, JAS and HO developed the CMS. MM extracted and organised the municipal databases. MM and HO also built the city's social graph from databases. GTG, JG and IL wrote the agent-based model; IL, LR, and ERS processed the data and performed the model calibration. All authors performed research and wrote the manuscript