相关论文: SARS-CoV-2 spread and quarantine fatigue: a theore…

Accurate modeling of lockdown effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemic evolution is a key issue in order e.g. to inform health-care decisions on emergency management. The compartmental and spatial models so far proposed use parametric descriptions of…

Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…

While many epidemiological models have being proposed to understand and handle COVID-19, too little has been invested to understand how the virus replicates in the human body and potential antiviral can be used to control the replication…

In light of the continuing emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccines, we create a simulation framework for exploring possible infection trajectories under various scenarios. The situations of primary interest involve the interaction…

A mathematical model to calculate the transmissibility of SARS-Cov-2 in Wuhan City was developed and published recently by Tian-Mu Chen et al., Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3. This paper…

This work constructs, analyzes, and simulates a new compartmental SEIR-type model for the dynamics and potential control of the current COVID-19 pandemic. The novelty in this work is two-fold. First, the population is divided according to…

Attempts to curb the spread of coronavirus by introducing strict quarantine measures apparently have different effect in different countries: while the number of new cases has reportedly decreased in China and South Korea, it still exhibit…

We propose a mathematical model with five compartments for the SARS-CoV-2 transmission: susceptible $S$, undetected infected asymptomatic $A$, undetected infected symptomatic $I$, confirmed positive and isolated $L$, and recovered $ R$, for…

This paper is devoted to the multidisciplinary modelling of a pandemic initiated by an aggressive virus, specifically the so-called \textit{SARS--CoV--2 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, corona virus n.2}. The study is developed within a…

We study the potential scenarios from a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Asymptomatic-Symptomatic-Dead (SIRASD) model. As a novelty, we consider populations that differ in their degree of compliance with social distancing policies following…

In December 2019, a newly discovered SARS-CoV-2 virus was emerged from China and propagated worldwide as a pandemic. In the absence of preventive medicine or a ready to use vaccine, mathematical models can provide useful scientific insights…

COVID-19 has forced quarantine measures in several countries across the world. These measures have proven to be effective in significantly reducing the prevalence of the virus. To date, no effective treatment or vaccine is available. In the…

We investigate, through a fractional mathematical model, the effects of physical distance on the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission. Two controls are considered in our model for eradication of the spread of COVID-19: media education, through…

In this work, we derive a system of Boltzmann-type equations to describe the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus at the microscopic scale, that is by modeling the human-to-human mechanisms of transmission. To this end, we consider two populations,…

A pipeline to evaluate the evolution of viral dynamics based on a new model-driven approach has been developed in the present study. The proposed methods exploit real data and the multiscale structure of the infection dynamics to provide…

Infectious epidemics can be simulated by employing dynamical processes as interactions on network structures. Here, we introduce techniques from the Multi-Agent System (MAS) domain in order to account for individual level characterization…

In this paper we propose a data-driven model for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and use it to design optimal control strategies of human-mobility restrictions that both curb the epidemic and minimize the economic costs associated with…

Based on the classical SIR model, we derive a simple modification for the dynamics of epidemics with a known incubation period of infection. The model is described by a system of integro-differential equations. Parameters of our model…

The Covid-19 pandemic is ongoing worldwide, and the damage it has caused is unprecedented. For prevention, South Korea has adopted a local quarantine strategy rather than a global lockdown. This approach not only minimizes economic damage,…

In the present article a mathematical model is proposed to research the current coronavirus outbreak (SARS-CoV-2) in Paraguay, describing the multiple transmission paths in the infection dynamics, following the susceptible, exposed,…