相关论文: SARS-CoV-2 spread and quarantine fatigue: a theore…

We modelled emergence and spread of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia between December 2021 and June 2022. This pandemic stage exhibited a diverse epidemiological profile with emergence of co-circulating sub-lineages of…

In the last decade, humanity has faced many different pandemics such as SARS, H1N1, and presently novel coronavirus (COVID-19). On one side, scientists are focusing on vaccinations, and on the other side, there is a need to propose models…

The fast transmission rate of COVID-19 worldwide has made this virus the most important challenge of year 2020. Many mitigation policies have been imposed by the governments at different regional levels (country, state, county, and city) to…

In this paper we analyze the effects of commuting and social inequalities for the epidemic development of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). With this aim we consider a SEIRD (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered and dead by disease)…

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, an astronomical number of publications on the pandemic dynamics appeared in the literature, of which many use the susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR) models, or…

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges for the utilities and grid operators around the world. In this work, we focus on the problem of load forecasting. With strict social distancing restrictions, power…

A comprehensive retrospective analysis of public health interventions, such as large scale testing, quarantining, and contact tracing, can help identify mechanisms most effective in mitigating COVID-19. We investigate China based SARS-CoV-2…

Different ways of calculating mortality ratios during epidemics have yielded very different results, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate both a survival probability model and an associated infection…

In this paper, we present a method to forecast the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across regions with a focus on the role of mobility. Mobility has previously been shown to play a significant role in the spread of the virus, particularly between…

On 19th March, the World Health Organisation declared a pandemic. Through this global spread, many nations have witnessed exponential growth of confirmed cases brought under control by severe mass quarantine or lockdown measures. However,…

In the context of natural disasters, human responses inevitably intertwine with natural factors. The COVID-19 pandemic, as a significant stress factor, has brought to light profound variations among different countries in terms of their…

COVID-19 pandemic is an ongoing global pandemic which has caused unprecedented disruptions in the public health sector and global economy. The virus, SARS-CoV-2 is responsible for the rapid transmission of coronavirus disease. Due to its…

This research paper presents an analysis of the propagation of the SARS-CoV-2, or other similar pathogens, in a hospital isolation room using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCS). The study…

We present a compartmental SEIRD model aimed at forecasting hospital occupancy in metropolitan areas during the current COVID-19 outbreak. The model features asymptomatic and symptomatic infections with detailed hospital dynamics. We model…

At the time of writing, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), had already resulted in more than thirty-two million cases infected and more than one million deaths worldwide.…

There is a growing interest in modeling and analyzing the spread of diseases like the SARS-CoV-2 infection using stochastic models. These models are typically analyzed quantitatively and are not often subject to validation using formal…

Epidemiological simulations as a method are used to better understand and predict the spreading of infectious diseases, for example of COVID-19. This paper presents an approach that combines person-centric data-driven human mobility…

We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…

The current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is a harsh reminder of the fact that, whether in a single human host or a wave of infection across continents, viral dynamics is often a story about the numbers. In this snapshot, our aim is to provide a…

Students develop and test simple models of the spread of COVID-19. Microsoft Excel is used as the modeling platform because it's non-threatening to students and because it's widely available. Students develop finite difference models and…