相关论文: A Queueing-Theoretic Framework for Evaluating Tran…

We develop a spatially dependent generalisation to the Wells-Riley model and its extensions applied to COVID-19, that determines the infection risk due to airborne transmission of viruses. We assume that the concentration of infectious…

Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion…

We characterize heavy-traffic process and steady-state limits for systems staffed according to the square-root safety rule, when the service requirements of the customers are perfectly correlated with their individual patience for waiting…

The screening testing is an effective tool to control the early spread of an infectious disease such as COVID-19. When the total testing capacity is limited, we aim to optimally allocate testing resources among n counties. We build a…

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…

Policy-makers require data-driven tools to assess the spread of COVID-19 and inform the public of their risk of infection on an ongoing basis. We propose a rigorous hybrid model-and-data-driven approach to risk scoring based on a…

Epidemic outbreaks can cause critical health concerns and severe global economic crises. For countries or regions with new infectious disease outbreaks, it is essential to generate preventive strategies by learning lessons from others with…

This paper studies statistical inference in a network of infinite-server queues, with the aim of estimating the underlying parameters (routing matrix, arrival rates, parameters pertaining to the service times) using observations of the…

We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…

The impact of spatial structure on the spread of an epidemic is an important issue in the propagation of infectious diseases. Recent studies, both deterministic and stochastic, have made it possible to understand the importance of the…

We consider an automatic overload control for two large service systems modeled as multi-server queues, such as call centers. We assume that the two systems are designed to operate independently, but want to help each other respond to…

This paper proposes a stochastic framework to evaluate the performance of public transit systems under short random service suspensions. We aim to derive closed-form formulations of the mean and variance of the queue length and waiting…

In this paper we analyze continuous-time SIS epidemics subject to arrivals and departures of agents, by using an approximated process based on replacements. In defining the SIS dynamics in an open network, we consider a stochastic setting…

We propose an SEIR-type meta-population model to simulate and monitor the Covid-19 epidemic evolution. The basic model consists of seven compartments, namely susceptible (S), exposed (E), three infective classes, recovered (R), and deceased…

Hard-to-predict bursts of COVID-19 pandemic revealed significance of statistical modeling which would resolve spatio-temporal correlations over geographical areas, for example spread of the infection over a city with census tract…

Steady-state solutions for a variety of relevant queueing systems are known today, e.g., from queueing theory, effective bandwidths, and network calculus. The behavior during transient phases, on the other hand, is understood to a much…

Epidemic models are used to analyze the progression or outcome of an epidemic under different control policies like vaccinations, quarantines, lockdowns, use of face-masks, pharmaceutical interventions, etc. When these models accurately…

Queueing networks are notoriously difficult to analyze sans both Markovian and stationarity assumptions. Much of the theoretical contribution towards performance analysis of time-inhomogeneous single class queueing networks has focused on…

Infectious or contagious diseases can be transmitted from one person to another through social contact networks. In today's interconnected global society, such contagion processes can cause global public health hazards, as exemplified by…

Modeling infection spread during pandemics is not new, with models using past data to tune simulation parameters for predictions. These help understand the healthcare burden posed by a pandemic and respond accordingly. However, the problem…