相关论文: Improving Bayesian estimation of Vaccine Efficacy

We propose a restricted win probability estimand for comparing treatments in a randomized trial with a time-to-event outcome. We also propose Bayesian estimators for this summary measure as well as the unrestricted win probability. Bayesian…

While vaccines are crucial to end the COVID-19 pandemic, public confidence in vaccine safety has always been vulnerable. Many statistical methods have been applied to VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System) database to study the…

With COVID-19 having emerged as the most widespread human pandemic disease in a century, the need to control its spread to avoid massive loss of life became more than necessary, and extremely fast. Several vaccines were developed and the…

We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…

Individual-based epidemiological models support the study of fine-grained preventive measures, such as tailored vaccine allocation policies, in silico. As individual-based models are computationally intensive, it is pivotal to identify…

Since the recent introduction of several viable vaccines for SARS-CoV-2, vaccination uptake has become the key factor that will determine our success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that game theory and social network models…

The measurement of the efficiency of an event selection is always an important part of the analysis of experimental data. The statistical techniques which are needed to determine the efficiency and its uncertainty are reviewed. Frequentist…

A mathematical model of COVID-19 with minimal compartments is developed. The model is simple enough to fit data on confirmed cases, estimate the hidden infection figure and incorporate the effect of vaccination. With the effect of the new…

Epidemiological forecasts are beset by uncertainties about the underlying epidemiological processes, and the surveillance process through which data are acquired. We present a Bayesian inference methodology that quantifies these…

Studies of vaccine efficacy often record both the incidence of vaccine-targeted virus strains (primary outcome) and the incidence of non-targeted strains (secondary outcome). However, standard estimates of vaccine efficacy on targeted…

Randomized vaccine trials are used to assess vaccine efficacy and to characterize the durability of vaccine induced protection. If efficacy is demonstrated, the treatment of placebo volunteers becomes an issue. For COVID-19 vaccine trials,…

Post-market safety surveillance is an integral part of mass vaccination programs. Typically relying on sequential analysis of real-world health data as they accrue, safety surveillance is challenged by the difficulty of sequential multiple…

Observational data are often used to estimate real-world effectiveness and durability of vaccines. A sequence of trials can be emulated to draw inference from such data while minimizing selection bias, immortal time bias, and confounding.…

When pandemics like COVID-19 spread around the world, the rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives to take prompt decisions and adapt policies depending on the current state of the disease. In this context, it is crucial…

We develop semiparametric methods for estimating subgroup-specific relative vaccine efficacy against multiple viral strains in a partially vaccinated population. Focusing on observational case-only studies, we address informative…

Pathogens usually exist in heterogeneous variants, like subtypes and strains. Quantifying treatment effects on the different variants is important for guiding prevention policies and treatment development. Here we ground analyses of…

Qatar has undergone distinct waves of COVID-19 infections, compounded by the emergence of variants, posing additional complexities. This research uniquely delves into the varied efficacy of existing vaccines and the pivotal role of…

The rapid outbreak of bird flu challenges the outcome of effective vaccine for the upcoming years. The recent research established different norms to eliminate flu pandemics. This can be made possible with skilled experimental analyses and…

The sudden and rapid spread of the COVID_19 pandemic with its terrible consequences has put the management of governments and the various world institutions into a crisis. They have been subjected to a considerable economic effort to be…

Vaccine randomized trials are typically designed to be blinded, ensuring that the estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) reflects the immunological effect of the vaccine. When blinding is broken, however, the estimated VE reflects not only the…