相关论文: The fiscal response to revenue shocks

We empirically test the effects of unanticipated fiscal policy shocks on the growth rate and the cyclical component of real private output and reveal different types of asymmetries in fiscal policy implementation. The data used are…

This paper introduces a flexible local projection that generalizes the model by Jord\'a (2005) to a non-parametric setting using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Monte Carlo experiments show that our BART-LP model is able to capture…

We propose a method to learn the nonlinear impulse responses to structural shocks using neural networks, and apply it to uncover the effects of US financial shocks. The results reveal substantial asymmetries with respect to the sign of the…

We estimate the dynamic distributional effects of financial shocks in the Euro Area using survey-based microdata on personal incomes. We find that positive financial shocks increase inequality, with heterogeneity across different income…

Active labor market policies are widely used by the Swiss government, enrolling over half of all unemployed individuals. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of Swiss programs in improving employment and earnings outcomes using causal…

This paper investigates a robust empirical Bayes correction for Bayesian modeling. We show the application of the model on income distribution. Income shock includes temporal and permanent shocks. We aim to eliminate temporal shock and…

Applied macroeconomists frequently use impulse response estimators motivated by linear models. We study whether the estimands of such procedures have a causal interpretation when the true data generating process is in fact nonlinear. We…

We consider the adaptive Lasso estimator with componentwise tuning in the framework of a low-dimensional linear regression model. In our setting, at least one of the components is penalized at the rate of consistent model selection and…

This paper investigates how the cost of public debt shapes fiscal policy and its effect on the economy. Using U.S. historical data, I show that when servicing the debt creates a fiscal burden, the government responds to spending shocks by…

Penalized logistic regression is extremely useful for binary classification with large number of covariates (higher than the sample size), having several real life applications, including genomic disease classification. However, the…

I devise a novel approach to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the short run with multi-category treatment effects and inverse probability weighting based on the potential outcome framework. This study's main contribution to…

This paper examines the impact of fiscal incentives on industrial investment in Uruguay from 1974 to 2010. Using a mixed-method approach that combines econometric models with machine learning techniques, the study investigates both the…

This paper examines the short- and long-run effects of U.S. federal personal income and corporate income tax cuts on a wide array of economic policy variables in a data-rich environment. Using a panel of U.S. macroeconomic data set, made up…

We study the effects of financial shocks on the United States economy by using a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that exploits the non-normalities in the data. We use this method to uniquely identify the model and…

We study the distributional implications of uncertainty shocks by developing a model that links macroeconomic aggregates to the US distribution of earnings and consumption. We find that: initially, the fraction of low-earning workers…

This paper investigates the assumption of homogeneous effects of federal tax changes across the U.S. states and identifies where and why that assumption may not be valid. More specifically, what determines the transmission mechanism of tax…

How do property prices respond to changes in local taxes and local public services? Attempts to measure this, starting with Oates (1969), have suffered from a lack of local public service controls. Recent work attempts to overcome such data…

We propose an optimal-transport-based matching method to nonparametrically estimate linear models with independent latent variables. The method consists in generating pseudo-observations from the latent variables, so that the Euclidean…

In this paper we estimate a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with factor stochastic volatility in the error term to assess the effects of an uncertainty shock in the Euro area. This allows us to treat macroeconomic uncertainty as a…

We systematically investigate the effect heterogeneity of job search programmes for unemployed workers. To investigate possibly heterogeneous employment effects, we combine non-experimental causal empirical models with Lasso-type…