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Tailoring treatments to individual needs is a central goal in fields such as medicine. A key step toward this goal is estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects (HTE) - the way treatments impact different subgroups. While crucial, HTE…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-07-30 Tomer Meir , Uri Shalit , Malka Gorfine

In this work, we offer a thorough analytical investigation into the role of shared hyperparameters in a hierarchical Bayesian model, examining their impact on information borrowing and posterior inference. Our approach is rooted in a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-23 Prasenjit Ghosh , Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

In semi-logarithmic regressions, treatment coefficients are often interpreted as approximations of the average treatment effect (ATE) in percentage points. This paper highlights the overlooked bias of this approximation under treatment…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-02-04 Ying Zeng

Interference--in which a unit's outcome is affected by the treatment of other units--poses significant challenges for the identification and estimation of causal effects. Most existing methods for estimating interference effects assume that…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-14 Yuhua Zhang , Jukka-Pekka Onnela , Shuo Sun , Ruoyu Wang

The estimation of the treatment effect is often biased in the presence of unobserved confounding variables which are commonly referred to as hidden variables. Although a few methods have been recently proposed to handle the effect of hidden…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-01 Kevin Jiang , Yang Ning

The average treatment effect (ATE) is popularly used to assess the treatment effect. However, the ATE implicitly assumes a homogenous treatment effect even amongst individuals with different characteristics. In this paper, we mainly focus…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-03-10 Yunjian Yin , Lan Liu , Zhi Geng

The identification of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) across subgroups is of significant interest in clinical trial analysis. Several state-of-the-art HTE estimation methods, including causal forests, apply recursive partitioning for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-10 Vik Shirvaikar , Andrea Storås , Xi Lin , Chris Holmes

In this paper, we develop inference methods for the distribution of heterogeneous individual treatment effects (ITEs) in the nonseparable triangular model with a binary endogenous treatment and a binary instrument of Vuong and Xu (2017) and…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-09-22 Jun Ma , Vadim Marmer , Zhengfei Yu

BART (Bayesian Additive Regression Trees) has become increasingly popular as a flexible and scalable nonparametric regression approach for modern applied statistics problems. For the practitioner dealing with large and complex nonlinear…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-07-11 Matthew Pratola , Hugh Chipman , Edward George , Robert McCulloch

Causal inference has gained much popularity in recent years, with interests ranging from academic, to industrial, to educational, and all in between. Concurrently, the study and usage of neural networks has also grown profoundly (albeit at…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-07 Demetrios Papakostas , Andrew Herren , P. Richard Hahn , Francisco Castillo

We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-03 Magid Sabbagh , David A. Stephens

Let $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ be a random sample from an unknown probability distribution $P$ on the sample space ${\cal X}$, and let $\theta=\theta(P)$ be a parameter of interest. The present paper proposes a nonparametric `Bayesian bootstrap'…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-05-13 Nils Lid Hjort

We present a general framework for Bayesian inference of causal effects that delivers provably robust inferences founded on design-based randomization of treatments. The framework involves fixing the observed potential outcomes and forming…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-04 Easton Huch , Fred Feinberg , Walter Dempsey

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to evaluate the causal effect of treatment in a randomized trial where a nonterminal event may be censored by a terminal event, but not vice versa (i.e., semi-competing risks). Based on the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-07-23 Yanxun Xu , Daniel Scharfstein , Peter Müller , Michael Daniels

We propose a simple yet powerful extension of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees which we name Hierarchical Embedded BART (HE-BART). The model allows for random effects to be included at the terminal node level of a set of regression trees,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-04-25 Bruna Wundervald , Andrew Parnell , Katarina Domijan

Estimating the individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data is a crucial research topic that holds significant value across multiple domains. How to identify hidden confounders poses a key challenge in ITE estimation. Recent…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-15 Ziqiang Cui , Xing Tang , Yang Qiao , Bowei He , Liang Chen , Xiuqiang He , Chen Ma

Causal inference methods based on electronic health record (EHR) databases must simultaneously handle confounding and missing data. Vast scholarship exists aimed at addressing these two issues separately, but surprisingly few papers attempt…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-28 Luke Benz , Alexander Levis , Sebastien Haneuse

We outline a Bayesian model-averaged meta-analysis for standardized mean differences in order to quantify evidence for both treatment effectiveness $\delta$ and across-study heterogeneity $\tau$. We construct four competing models by…

In Bayesian meta-analysis, the specification of prior probabilities for the between-study heterogeneity is commonly required, and is of particular benefit in situations where only few studies are included. Among the considerations in the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-02 Christian Röver , Sibylle Sturtz , Jona Lilienthal , Ralf Bender , Tim Friede

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian