相关论文: Evidence for complex fixed points in pandemic data
The evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic has been accompanied by accumulating evidence on the underlying epidemiological parameters. Hence there is potential for models providing mid-term forecasts of the epidemic trajectory using such…
We analyze the dynamics of a population of independent random walkers on a graph and develop a simple model of epidemic spreading. We assume that each walker visits independently the nodes of a finite ergodic graph in a discrete-time…
We study the temporal reconstruction of epidemics evolving over networks. Given partial or aggregated temporal information of the epidemic, our goal is to estimate the complete evolution of the spread leveraging the topology of the network…
In this paper, we propose a method to analyze correlations in pandemic-related data across different geographical regions, relying on the analysis of correlations for non-stationary time series, which are typical of pandemic data. Unlike…
From the perspective of human mobility, the COVID-19 pandemic constituted a natural experiment of enormous reach in space and time. Here, we analyse the inherent multiple scales of human mobility using Facebook Movement Maps collected…
We study the effect of migration between coupled populations, or patches, on the stability properties of multistrain disease dynamics. The epidemic model used in this work displays a Hopf bifurcation to oscillations in a single well mixed…
A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…
We study the epidemic source detection problem in contact tracing networks modeled as a graph-constrained maximum likelihood estimation problem using the susceptible-infected model in epidemiology. Based on a snapshot observation of the…
Predicting the endemic/epidemic transition during the temporal evolution of a contagious disease. Methods: Defining indicators for detecting the transition endemic/epidemic, with four scalars to be compared, calculated from the daily…
In panel data we observe a usually high number N of individuals over a time period T. Even if T is large one often assumes stability of the model over time. We propose a nonparametric and robust test for a change in location and derive its…
Epidemics on complex networks is a widely investigated topic in the last few years, mainly due to the last pandemic events. Usually, real contact networks are dynamic, hence much effort has been invested in studying epidemics on evolving…
In this paper, we report results for the wave packet dynamics in a class of quasiperiodic chains consisting of two types of weakly coupled clusters. The dynamics are studied by means of the return probability and the mean square…
Epidemic spreading over populations networks has been an important subject of research for several decades, and especially during the Covid-19 pandemic. Most epidemic outbreaks are likely to create multiple mutations during their spreading…
We propose a novel family of test statistics to detect the presence of changepoints in a sequence of dependent, possibly multivariate, functional-valued observations. Our approach allows to test for a very general class of changepoints,…
Transmission dynamics of infectious diseases are often studied using compartmental mathematical models, which are commonly represented as systems of autonomous ordinary differential equations. A key step in the analysis of such models is to…
It is a fundamental question in epidemiology to estimate, model and predict the growth rate of a pandemic. Analogously, analysing the diffusion of innovation, (fake) news, memes, and rumours is of key importance in the social sciences. The…
The emergence of an epidemic evokes the need to monitor its spread and assess and validate any mitigation measures enacted by governments and administrative bodies in real time. We present here a method to observe and quantify this spread…
We considered a model for an infectious disease outbreak, when the depletion of susceptible individuals is negligible, and assumed that individuals adapt their behavior according to the information they receive about new cases. In line with…
The aim of the study was to compare the epidemic spread on static and dynamic small-world networks. The network was constructed as a 2-dimensional Watts-Strogatz model (500x500 square lattice with additional shortcuts), and the dynamics…
Despite the advanced stage of epidemic modeling, there is a major demand for methods to incorporate behavioral responses to the spread of a disease such as social distancing and adoption of prevention methods. Mobility plays an important…