相关论文: Evidence for complex fixed points in pandemic data
Macroscopic growth laws, solutions of mean field equations, describe in an effective way an underlying complex dynamics. They are applied to study the spreading of infections, as in the case of CoviD-19, where the counting of the cumulated…
In this work we consider an epidemic system modelling the evolution of a spore-producing pathogen within a multi-host population of plants. Here we focus our analysis on the study of the stationary states. We first discuss the existence of…
Epidemic models are invaluable tools to understand and implement strategies to control the spread of infectious diseases, as well as to inform public health policies and resource allocation. However, current modeling approaches have…
We propose a novel model-based clustering approach for samples of time series. We assume as a unique commonality that two observations belong to the same group if structural changes in their behaviours happen at the same time. We resort to…
Infectious diseases often involve multiple strains that interact through the immune response generated after an infection. This study investigates the conditions under which a two-strain epidemic model with partial cross-immunity can lead…
The paper introduces an approach to identify a set of spatially constrained homogeneous areas maximally homogeneous in terms of epidemic trends. The proposed hierarchical algorithm is based on the Dynamic TimeWarping distances between…
Classical compartmental models in epidemiology often assume a homogeneous population for simplicity, which neglects the inherent heterogeneity among individuals. This assumption frequently leads to inaccurate predictions when applied to…
Contemporary epidemiological models often involve spatial variation, providing an avenue to investigate the averaged dynamics of individual movements. In this work, we extend a recent model by Vaziry, Kolokolnikov, and Kevrekidis [Royal…
Existing empirical work has focused on assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on human mobility to contain the spread of COVID-19. Less is known about the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped the spatial…
Accurate numbers are needed to understand and predict viral dynamics. Curation of high-quality literature values for the infectious period duration or household secondary attack rate, for example, is especially pressing currently because…
The dynamic nature of system gives rise to dynamical features of epidemic spreading, such as oscillation and bistability. In this paper, by studying the epidemic spreading in growing networks, in which susceptible nodes may adaptively break…
We determine the modulational stability of standing waves with small group velocity in quasi-onedimensional systems slightly above the threshold of a supercritical Hopf bifurcation. The stability limits are given by two different…
The renowned general epidemic process describes the stochastic evolution of a population of individuals which are either susceptible, infected or dead. A second order phase transition belonging to the universality class of dynamic isotropic…
In this paper, we model the trajectory of the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 (in log scale) via a piecewise linear trend model. The model naturally captures the phase transitions of the epidemic growth rate via…
The time variation of contacts in a networked system may fundamentally alter the properties of spreading processes and affect the condition for large-scale propagation, as encoded in the epidemic threshold. Despite the great interest in the…
With the unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical modeling of epidemics has been perceived and used as a central element in understanding, predicting, and governing the pandemic event. However, soon it became clear that long term…
Analyzing changes in network evolution is central to statistical network inference, as underscored by recent challenges of predicting and distinguishing pandemic-induced transformations in organizational and communication networks. We…
Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to…
We propose using a permutation test to detect discontinuities in an underlying economic model at a known cutoff point. Relative to the existing literature, we show that this test is well suited for event studies based on time-series data.…
Spatially explicit models have been widely used in today's mathematical ecology and epidemiology to study persistence and extinction of populations as well as their spatial patterns. Here we extend the earlier work--static dispersal between…