相关论文: Bayesian Beta-Binomial Prevalence Estimation Using…

Frequentist-style large-sample properties of Bayesian posterior distributions, such as consistency and convergence rates, are important considerations in nonparametric problems. In this paper we give an analysis of Bayesian asymptotics…

Estimation of the population size $n$ from $k$ i.i.d.\ binomial observations with unknown success probability $p$ is relevant to a multitude of applications and has a long history. Without additional prior information this is a notoriously…

Estimating the unknown density from which a given independent sample originates is more difficult than estimating the mean, in the sense that for the best popular non-parametric density estimators, the mean integrated square error converges…

Bayesian methods provide a natural means for uncertainty quantification, that is, credible sets can be easily obtained from the posterior distribution. But is this uncertainty quantification valid in the sense that the posterior credible…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many institutions such as universities and workplaces implemented testing regimens with every member of some population tested longitudinally, and those testing positive isolated for some time. Although the…

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

The Bayes Error Rate (BER) is the fundamental limit on the achievable generalizable classification accuracy of any machine learning model due to inherent uncertainty within the data. BER estimators offer insight into the difficulty of any…

We present a new Bayesian methodology to learn the unknown material density of a given sample by inverting its two-dimensional images that are taken with a Scanning Electron Microscope. An image results from a sequence of projections of the…

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…

In this paper, we study frequentist coverage errors of Bayesian credible sets for an approximately linear regression model with (moderately) high dimensional regressors, where the dimension of the regressors may increase with but is smaller…

Method of parameterizing and smoothing the unknown underling distributions using Bernstein polynomials is proposed, verified and investigated. Any distribution with bounded and smooth enough density can be approximated by the proposed…

We introduce a new method for inference in stochastic epidemic models which uses recursive multinomial approximations to integrate over unobserved variables and thus circumvent likelihood intractability. The method is applicable to a class…

Bayesian model comparison is often based on the posterior distribution over the set of compared models. This distribution is often observed to concentrate on a single model even when other measures of model fit or forecasting ability…

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…

We consider a sparse linear regression model with unknown symmetric error under the high-dimensional setting. The true error distribution is assumed to belong to the locally $\beta$-H\"{o}lder class with an exponentially decreasing tail,…

Computation of the marginal likelihood from a simulated posterior distribution is central to Bayesian model selection but is computationally difficult. I argue that the marginal likelihood can be reliably computed from a posterior sample by…

When estimating population prevalence from a non-random sample, it is important to adjust for differences between sample and population. However, adjustment for multiple factors requires analysis that can be difficult to understand and…

We propose a robust Bayesian formulation of random feature (RF) regression that accounts explicitly for prior and likelihood misspecification via Huber-style contamination sets. Starting from the classical equivalence between…

A new approach for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and selection is proposed, based on the mixture model approach for hypothesis testing in Kaniav et al., 2014. Inheriting from the good properties of this approach, it extends BMA to cases…

Prior information often takes the form of parameter constraints. Bayesian methods include such information through prior distributions having constrained support. By using posterior sampling algorithms, one can quantify uncertainty without…