相关论文: Identification and estimation of Structural VARMA …

This paper analyzes identifiability properties of structural vector autoregressive moving average (SVARMA) models driven by independent and non-Gaussian shocks. It is well known, that SVARMA models driven by Gaussian errors are not…

Statistical identification of possibly non-fundamental SVARMA models requires structural errors: (i) to be an i.i.d process, (ii) to be mutually independent across components, and (iii) each of them must be non-Gaussian distributed. Hence,…

This article deals with parameterisation, identifiability, and maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of possibly non-invertible structural vector autoregressive moving average (SVARMA) models driven by independent and non-Gaussian shocks. In…

As a special infinite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model can capture much richer temporal patterns than the widely used finite-order VAR model. However, its practicality has long…

Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are widely used to analyze the simultaneous relationships between multiple time-dependent data. Various statistical inference methods have been studied to overcome the identification problems…

We consider graphical models based on a recursive system of linear structural equations. This implies that there is an ordering, $\sigma$, of the variables such that each observed variable $Y_v$ is a linear function of a variable specific…

Vector autoregressions (VARs) with multivariate stochastic volatility are widely used for structural analysis. Often the structural model identified through economically meaningful restrictions--e.g., sign restrictions--is supposed to be…

We show that structural smooth transition vector autoregressive models are statistically identified if the shocks are mutually independent and at most one of them is Gaussian. This extends a known identification result for linear structural…

Existing models for high-dimensional time series are overwhelmingly developed within the finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. However, the more flexible vector autoregressive moving averages (VARMA) have been much less…

A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) process is a linear causal model for variables that evolve over a discrete set of time points and between which there may be lagged and instantaneous effects. The qualitative causal structure of an…

We consider statistical inference for impulse responses in sparse, structural high-dimensional vector autoregressive (SVAR) systems. We introduce consistent estimators of impulse responses in the high-dimensional setting and suggest valid…

Multivariate dynamic time series models are widely encountered in practical studies, e.g., modelling policy transmission mechanism and measuring connectedness between economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper proposes a…

In this paper we propose a class of structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) characterized by structural breaks (SVAR-WB). Together with standard restrictions on the parameters and on functions of them, we also consider constraints across…

We present a re-parameterization of vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models that allows estimation of parameters under the constraints of causality and invertibility. The parameter constraints associated with a causal invertible…

This paper analyzes Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVARs) where identification of structural parameters holds locally but not globally. In this case there exists a set of isolated structural parameter points that are observationally…

We study identification in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) in which the endogenous variables enter nonlinearly on the left-hand side of the model, a feature we term endogenous nonlinearity, to distinguish it from the more familiar…

While considerable advances have been made in estimating high-dimensional structured models from independent data using Lasso-type models, limited progress has been made for settings when the samples are dependent. We consider estimating…

Identifying structural parameters in linear simultaneous-equation models is a longstanding challenge. Recent work exploits information in higher-order moments of non-Gaussian data. In this literature, the structural errors are typically…

We propose a regularized factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model that allows for sparsity in the factor loadings. In this framework, factors may only load on a subset of variables which simplifies the factor identification and…