相关论文: Identification and estimation of Structural VARMA …

This paper studies the identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVARs) exploiting a break in the variances of the structural shocks. Point-identification for this class of models relies on an eigen-decomposition involving the…

One of the important and widely used classes of models for non-Gaussian time series is the generalized autoregressive model average models (GARMA), which specifies an ARMA structure for the conditional mean process of the underlying time…

Structural causal models (SCMs) are widely used in various disciplines to represent causal relationships among variables in complex systems. Unfortunately, the underlying causal structure is often unknown, and estimating it from data…

Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average (VARMA) models form a powerful and general model class for analyzing dynamics among multiple time series. While VARMA models encompass the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models, their popularity in…

The Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average (VARMA) model is fundamental to the theory of multivariate time series; however, identifiability issues have led practitioners to abandon it in favor of the simpler but more restrictive Vector…

Causal discovery with latent variables is a crucial but challenging task. Despite the emergence of numerous methods aimed at addressing this challenge, they are not fully identified to the structure that two observed variables are…

We propose a high-dimensional structural vector autoregression framework with a factor structure in the error terms that accommodates a large number of linear inequality restrictions on both impact impulse responses and structural shocks.…

We generalize well-known results on structural identifiability of vector autoregressive models (VAR) to the case where the innovation covariance matrix has reduced rank. Structural singular VAR models appear, for example, as solutions of…

High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models provide a flexible framework for characterizing dynamic dependence in multivariate spatio-temporal systems, but their unrestricted estimation becomes infeasible when multiple variables are…

We propose a large structural VAR which is identified by higher moments without the need to impose economically motivated restrictions. The model scales well to higher dimensions, allowing the inclusion of a larger number of variables. We…

We take a new perspective on identification in structural dynamic models: rather than imposing restrictions alone, we optimize an objective. While definitive structural identification ultimately requires exogenous economic insight, a…

In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under…

Structural discovery amongst a set of variables is of interest in both static and dynamic settings. In the presence of lead-lag dependencies in the data, the dynamics of the system can be represented through a structural equation model…

In the study of complex physical and physiological systems represented by multivariate time series, an issue of great interest is the description of the system dynamics over a range of different temporal scales. While information-theoretic…

We propose a structural vector autoregressive model with a new and flexible specification of the volatility process which we call Sparse Heterogeneous Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity. In this model, the conditional variance of each…

We consider the problem of inferring the causal structure from observational data, especially when the structure is sparse. This type of problem is usually formulated as an inference of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) model. The linear…

We propose a novel Bayesian heteroskedastic Markov-switching structural vector autoregression with data-driven time-varying identification. The model selects among alternative patterns of exclusion restrictions to identify structural shocks…

In this paper, we propose a novel variable selection approach in the framework of sparse high-dimensional GLARMA models. It consists in combining the estimation of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) coefficients of these models with…

When dealing with time series data, causal inference methods often employ structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) processes to model time-evolving random systems. In this work, we rephrase recursive SVAR processes with possible latent…

Dynamic inference problems in autoregressive (AR/ARMA/ARIMA), exponential smoothing, and navigation are often formulated and solved using state-space models (SSM), which allow a range of statistical distributions to inform innovations and…