相关论文: Quantifying Inaccuracies in Modeling COVID-19 Pand…

We sample aggravated cases following age-structured probabilities from confirmed cases and use ICU occupation data to find a subnotification factor. A logistic fit is then employed to project the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic with…

As COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A main challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key…

Diverse non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), serving as the primary approach for COVID-19 control prior to pharmaceutical interventions, showed heterogeneous spatiotemporal effects on pandemic management. Investigating the dynamic…

The paper studies different regression approaches for modeling COVID-19 spread and its impact on the stock market. The logistic curve model was used with Bayesian regression for predictive analytics of the coronavirus spread. The impact of…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a massive number of attempts on the predictions of the number of cases and the other future trends of this pandemic have been made. However, they fail to predict, in a reliable way, the medium and long term…

The COVID-19 epidemic has been spreading around the world for nearly three years, and asymptomatic infections have exacerbated the spread of the epidemic. To evaluate the role of asymptomatic infections in the spread of the epidemic, we…

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global public health crisis that has been declared a pandemic by World Health Organization. Forecasting country-wise COVID-19 cases is necessary to help policymakers and healthcare providers prepare…

We propose a detailed discrete-time model of COVID-19 epidemics coming in two flavours, mean-field and probabilistic. The main contribution lies in several extensions of the basic model that capture i) user mobility - distinguishing…

Classical compartmental models in epidemiology often assume a homogeneous population for simplicity, which neglects the inherent heterogeneity among individuals. This assumption frequently leads to inaccurate predictions when applied to…

The statistical dynamics of a pathogen within a population depend on a range of factors: population density, the effectiveness and investment into social distancing, public policy measures and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are…

Monitoring the evolution of the Covid19 pandemic constitutes a critical step in sanitary policy design. Yet, the assessment of the pandemic intensity within the pandemic period remains a challenging task because of the limited quality of…

We propose a mathematical model to analyze the time evolution of the total number of infected population with Covid-19 disease at a region in the ongoing pandemic. Using the available data of Covid-19 infected population on various…

As the COVID-19 outbreak is developing the two most frequently reported statistics seem to be the raw confirmed case and case fatalities counts. Focusing on Italy, one of the hardest hit countries, we look at how these two values could be…

It is widely accepted that the number of reported cases during the first stages of the COVID-19 pandemic severely underestimates the number of actual cases. We leverage delay embedding theorems of Whitney and Takens and use Gaussian Process…

No, they can't. Epidemic spread is characterized by exponentially growing dynamics, which are intrinsically unpredictable. The time at which the growth in the number of infected individuals halts and starts decreasing cannot be calculated…

We present an interpretable high-resolution spatio-temporal model to estimate COVID-19 deaths together with confirmed cases one-week ahead of the current time, at the county-level and weekly aggregated, in the United States. A notable…

The long duration of the COVID-19 pandemic allowed for multiple bursts in the infection and death rates, the so-called epidemic waves. This complex behavior is no longer tractable by simple compartmental model and requires more…

The continuously growing number of COVID-19 cases pressures healthcare services worldwide. Accurate short-term forecasting is thus vital to support country-level policy making. The strategies adopted by countries to combat the pandemic…

Approaches to the calculation of the full state vector of a larger epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19 in Sweden at the initial time instant from available data and with a simplified dynamical model are proposed and evaluated.…

During 2020, the infection rate of COVID-19 has been investigated by many scholars from different research fields. In this context, reliable and interpretable forecasts of disease incidents are a vital tool for policymakers to manage…