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Age-structured estimation of COVID-19 ICU demand from low quality data

Physics and Society 2024-02-14 v2 Populations and Evolution Machine Learning
Authors: Rodrigo Veiga , Rodrigo Murta , Renato Vicente
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Abstract

We sample aggravated cases following age-structured probabilities from confirmed cases and use ICU occupation data to find a subnotification factor. A logistic fit is then employed to project the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic with plateau scenarios taken from locations that have reached this stage. Finally, the logistic curve found is corrected by the subnotification factor and sampled to project the future demand for ICU beds.

Keywords

epidemic modeling and pandemic dynamics

Cite

@article{arxiv.2006.06530,
  title  = {Age-structured estimation of COVID-19 ICU demand from low quality data},
  author = {Rodrigo Veiga and Rodrigo Murta and Renato Vicente},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.06530},
  year   = {2024}
}

Comments

6 pages, 3 figures, 4 tables. Code available at https://github.com/rodsveiga/ICU_demand

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R2 v1 2026-06-23T16:14:32.773Z