Related papers: Age-structured estimation of COVID-19 ICU demand f…
As the COVID-19 spread over the globe and new variants of COVID-19 keep occurring, reliable real-time forecasts of COVID-19 hospitalizations are critical for public health decision on medical resources allocations such as ICU beds,…
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a devastating global impact, and has placed a tremendous burden on struggling healthcare systems around the world. Given the limited resources, accurate patient triaging and care planning is critical…
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a considerable impact on day-to-day life. Tackling the disease by providing the necessary resources to the affected is of paramount importance. However, estimation of the required resources is not a trivial…
In this work, a proposal for the estimation of the populations using logistic curve fitting is presented. This type of curve is used to study population growth, in this case population of people infected with the Covid-19 virus; and it can…
One major bottleneck in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is the limited number of critical care beds. Due to the dynamic development of infections and the time lag between when patients are infected and when a proportion of them enters an…
The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences, highlighting the urgency for explanatory and predictive tools to track infection rates and burden of care over time and space. However, the scarcity and inhomogeneity of data is a…
During the first wave of COVID-19, hospitals were overwhelmed with the high number of admitted patients. An accurate prediction of the most likely individual disease progression can improve the planning of limited resources and finding the…
Objective. The COVID-19 pandemic has threatened to collapse hospital and ICU services, and it has affected the care programs for non-COVID patients. The objective was to develop a mathematical model designed to optimize predictions related…
For hospitals, realistic forecasting of bed demand during impending epidemics of infectious diseases is essential to avoid being overwhelmed by a potential sudden increase in the number of admitted patients. Short-term forecasting can aid…
In this paper, we examine cross-country differences, in terms of the age distribution of symptomatic cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) cases, and fatalities due to the novel COVID-19. By calculating conditional…
Typically, mathematical simulation studies on COVID-19 pandemic forecasting are based on deterministic differential equations which assume that both the number ($n$) of individuals in various epidemiological classes and the time ($t$) on…
In this work, a proposal to forecast the populations using generalized logistics regression curve fitting is presented. This type of curve is used to study population growth, in this case population of people infected with the Covid-19…
Since the first outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic at the end of 2019, data has been made available on the number of infections, deaths and recoveries for all countries of the World, and that data can be used for statistical analysis. The…
The availability of intensive care beds during the Covid-19 epidemic is crucial to guarantee the best possible treatment to severely affected patients. In this work we show a simple strategy for short-term prediction of Covid-19 ICU beds,…
Leading up to August 2020, COVID-19 has spread to almost every country in the world, causing millions of infected and hundreds of thousands of deaths. In this paper, we first verify the assumption that clinical variables could have…
Accurate early prediction of in-hospital mortality in intensive care units (ICUs) is essential for timely clinical intervention and efficient resource allocation. This study develops and evaluates machine learning models that integrate both…
Respiratory failure is the one of major causes of death in critical care unit. During the outbreak of COVID-19, critical care units experienced an extreme shortage of mechanical ventilation because of respiratory failure related syndromes.…
Background: Recent work showed that the temporal growth of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) follows a sub-exponential power-law scaling whenever effective control interventions are in place. Taking this into consideration, we…
Intensive care occupancy is an important indicator of health care stress that has been used to guide policy decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Toward reliable decision-making as a pandemic progresses, estimating the rates at which…
We examine the age-structured SIR model, a variant of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic propagation, in the context of COVID-19. In doing so, we provide a theoretical basis for the model, perform an…