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We study the optimal portfolio allocation problem from a Bayesian perspective using value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) as risk measures. By applying the posterior predictive distribution for the future portfolio…

投资组合管理 · 定量金融 2020-12-04 Taras Bodnar , Mathias Lindholm , Vilhelm Niklasson , Erik Thorsén

The portfolio optimization problem in which the variances of the return rates of assets are not identical is analyzed in this paper using the methodology of statistical mechanical informatics, specifically, replica analysis. We define two…

投资组合管理 · 定量金融 2016-12-15 Takashi Shinzato

This paper considers mean-variance optimization under uncertainty, specifically when one desires a sparsified set of optimal portfolio weights. From the standpoint of a Bayesian investor, our approach produces a small portfolio from many…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2016-10-05 David Puelz , P. Richard Hahn , Carlos M. Carvalho

This paper develops a method to derive optimal portfolios and risk premia explicitly in a general diffusion model for an investor with power utility and a long horizon. The market has several risky assets and is potentially incomplete.…

概率论 · 数学 2012-03-08 Paolo Guasoni , Scott Robertson

Robust estimation for modern portfolio selection on a large set of assets becomes more important due to large deviation of empirical inference on big data. We propose a distributionally robust methodology for high-dimensional mean-variance…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-12 Ruike Wu , Yanrong Yang , Han Lin Shang , Huanjun Zhu

Optimizing portfolio performance is a fundamental challenge in financial modeling, requiring the integration of advanced clustering techniques and data-driven optimization strategies. This paper introduces a comparative backtesting approach…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-23 Keon Vin Park

The limitations of the traditional mean-variance (MV) efficient frontier, as introduced by Markowitz (1952), have been extensively documented in the literature. Specifically, the assumptions of normally distributed returns or quadratic…

理论经济学 · 经济学 2025-09-23 Jinghui Chen , Edward Furman , Stephano Ricci , Judeto Shanthirajah

We propose a random walk model of asset returns where the parameters depend on market stress. Stress is measured by, e.g., the value of an implied volatility index. We show that model parameters including standard deviations and…

综合金融 · 定量金融 2016-05-11 Martin Gremm

This paper studies a continuous-time market where an agent, having specified an investment horizon and a targeted terminal mean return, seeks to minimize the variance of the return. The optimal portfolio of such a problem is called…

概率论 · 数学 2008-12-02 Xun Li , Xun Yu Zhou

Accurate forecasting of volatility and return quantiles is essential for evaluating financial tail risks such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. This study proposes an extension of the traditional stochastic volatility model, termed…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-02-02 Makoto Takahashi , Yuta Yamauchi , Toshiaki Watanabe , Yasuhiro Omori

This paper aims to more effectively manage and mitigate stock market risks by accurately characterizing financial market returns and volatility. We enhance the Stochastic Volatility (SV) model by incorporating fat-tailed distributions and…

应用统计 · 统计学 2024-12-31 Minheng Xiao

Using a family of modified Weibull distributions, encompassing both sub-exponentials and super-exponentials, to parameterize the marginal distributions of asset returns and their multivariate generalizations with Gaussian copulas, we offer…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2009-11-10 Y. Malevergne , D. Sornette

The potential benefits of portfolio diversification have been known to investors for a long time. Markowitz (1952) suggested the seminal approach for optimizing the portfolio problem based on finding the weights as budget shares that…

理论经济学 · 经济学 2019-03-05 Abdulnasser Hatemi-J , Mohamed Ali Hajji , Youssef El-Khatib

We introduce a financial portfolio optimization framework that allows us to automatically select the relevant assets and estimate their weights by relying on a sorted $\ell_1$-Norm penalization, henceforth SLOPE. Our approach is able to…

投资组合管理 · 定量金融 2021-07-30 Philipp J. Kremer , Sangkyun Lee , Malgorzata Bogdan , Sandra Paterlini

In this paper, we generalize the parametric delta-VaR method from portfolios with normally distributed risk factors to portfolios with elliptically distributed ones. We treat both the expected shortfall and the Value-at-Risk of such…

经典分析与常微分方程 · 数学 2008-12-02 Jules Sadefo Kamdem

We develop the idea of using Monte Carlo sampling of random portfolios to solve portfolio investment problems. In this first paper we explore the need for more general optimization tools, and consider the means by which constrained random…

投资组合管理 · 定量金融 2010-08-24 William T. Shaw

Recent developments in deep learning techniques have motivated intensive research in machine learning-aided stock trading strategies. However, since the financial market has a highly non-stationary nature hindering the application of…

投资组合管理 · 定量金融 2020-12-15 Kentaro Imajo , Kentaro Minami , Katsuya Ito , Kei Nakagawa

Motivated by recent advances in the spectral theory of auto-covariance matrices, we are led to revisit a reformulation of Markowitz' mean-variance portfolio optimization approach in the time domain. In its simplest incarnation it applies to…

投资组合管理 · 定量金融 2016-06-22 Peter A. Bebbington , Reimer Kuehn

We introduce a new set of consistent measures of risks, in terms of the semi-invariants of pdf's, such that the centered moments and the cumulants of the portfolio distribution of returns that put more emphasis on the tail the…

统计力学 · 物理学 2008-12-10 Y. Malevergne , D. Sornette

With the good development in the financial industry, the market starts to catch people's eyes, not only by the diversified investing choices ranging from bonds and stocks to futures and options but also by the general "high-risk,…

综合金融 · 定量金融 2020-07-03 Qingyin Ge , Yunuo Ma , Yuezhi Liao , Rongyu Li , Tianle Zhu