相关论文: Global estimation of unintended pregnancy and abor…

Understanding the underlying causes of maternal death across all regions of the world is essential to inform policies and resource allocation to reduce the mortality burden. However, in many countries there exists very little data on the…

The United Nations regularly publishes projections of the populations of all the world's countries broken down by age and sex. These projections are the de facto standard and are widely used by international organizations, governments and…

The sex ratio at birth (SRB) is defined as the ratio of male to female live births. The SRB imbalance in parts of the world over the past several decades is a direct consequence of sex-selective abortion, driven by the co-existence of son…

Since the 1940s, population projections have in most cases been produced using the deterministic cohort component method. However, in 2015, for the first time, in a major advance, the United Nations issued official probabilistic population…

Reducing the global burden of stillbirths is important to improving child and maternal health. Of interest is understanding patterns in the timing of stillbirths -- that is, whether they occur in the intra- or antepartum period -- because…

Estimation of stillbirth rates globally is complicated because of the paucity of reliable data from countries where most stillbirths occur. We compiled data and developed a Bayesian hierarchical temporal sparse regression model for…

Accurate estimates of subnational populations are important for policy formulation and monitoring population health indicators. For example, estimates of the number of women of reproductive age are important to understand the population at…

Estimates of future migration patterns are of broad interest in demography. Forced migration, including refugee and asylum seekers, plays an important role in overall migration patterns, but is notoriously difficult to forecast. Focusing on…

In this paper, we provide causal evidence on abortions and risky health behaviors as determinants of mental health development among young women. Using administrative in- and outpatient records from Sweden, we apply a novel grouped…

Improving health worldwide will require rigorous quantification of population-level trends in health status. However, global-level surveys are not available, forcing researchers to rely on fragmentary country-specific data of varying…

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends at antenatal…

This paper devises a fully Bayesian sample size determination method for hierarchical model-based small area estimation with a decision risk approach. A new loss function specified around a desired maximum posterior variance target…

Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…

The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth ($e_0$)…

Quantifying the public/private sector supply of contraceptive methods within countries is vital for effective and sustainable family planning (FP) delivery. In many low and middle-income countries (LMIC), measuring the contraceptive supply…

We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration rates for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net…

There has been increasing interest in studying the effect of giving births to unintended pregnancies on later life physical and mental health. In this article, we provide the protocol for our planned observational study on the long-term…

We propose a novel Bayesian methodology which uses random walks for rapid inference of statistical properties of undirected networks with weighted or unweighted edges. Our formalism yields high-accuracy estimates of the probability…

The analysis of population-wide datasets can provide insight on the health status of large populations so that public health officials can make data-driven decisions. The analysis of such datasets often requires highly parameterized models…

The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) is defined as the number of maternal deaths in a population per 100,000 live births. Country-specific MMR estimates are published on a regular basis by the United Nations Maternal Mortality Estimation…