相关论文: Modelling Excess Mortality in Covid-19-like Epidem…

The global pandemic of the 2019-nCov requires the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate future social and economic costs of quarantine measures worldwide. We propose an epidemiological model for forecasting and policy evaluation…

I employ a simple mathematical model of an epidemic process to evaluate how four basic quantities: the reproduction number (R), the numbers of sensitive (S) and infectious individuals(I), and total community size (N) affect strategies to…

Although traditional models of epidemic spreading focus on the number of infected, susceptible and recovered individuals, a lot of attention has been devoted to integrate epidemic models with population genetics. Here we develop an…

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…

A reasonable prediction of infectious diseases transmission process under different disease control strategies is an important reference point for policy makers. Here we established a dynamic transmission model via Python and realized…

We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…

COVID-19--a viral infectious disease--has quickly emerged as a global pandemic infecting millions of people with a significant number of deaths across the globe. The symptoms of this disease vary widely. Depending on the symptoms an…

We study the spread of Covid-19 across neighbourhoods of cities in the developing world and find that small numbers of neighbourhoods account for a majority of cases (k-index~0.7). We also find that the countrywide distribution of cases…

The global COVID-19 pandemic (SARS-CoV-2 virus) is the defining health crisis of our century. Due to the absence of vaccines and drugs that can help to fight it, the world solution to control the spread has been to consider public social…

We study the extinction of epidemics in a generalized susceptible-infected-susceptible model, where a susceptible individual becomes infected with the rate $\lambda$ when contacting $m$ infective individual(s) simultaneously, and an…

The time varying effective reproduction number is an important parameter for communication and policy decisions during an epidemic. In this paper, we present new statistical methods for estimating the reproduction number based on the…

The paper presents classification and analysis of the mathematical models of COVID-19 spread in different groups of populations such as the family, school, office (3-100 people), neighborhood (100-5000 people), city, region (0.5-15 million…

One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…

Computational models for the simulation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic evolution would be extremely useful to support authorities in designing healthcare policies and lockdown measures to…

The emergence of an epidemic evokes the need to monitor its spread and assess and validate any mitigation measures enacted by governments and administrative bodies in real time. We present here a method to observe and quantify this spread…

COVID-19 remains a challenging global threat with ongoing waves of infections and clinical disease which have resulted millions of deaths and an enormous strain on health systems worldwide. Effective vaccines have been developed for the…

This study proposes a nonhomogeneous birth--death model which captures the dynamics of a directly transmitted infectious disease. Our model accounts for an important aspect of observed epidemic data in which only symptomatic infecteds are…

We used Bayesian model inversion to estimate epidemic parameters from the reported case and death rates from seven countries using data from late January 2020 to April 5th 2020. Two distinct generative model types were employed: first a…

We study a stochastic epidemic model consisting of elements (organisms in a community or cells in tissue) with fixed positions, in which damage or disease is transmitted by diffusing agents ("signals") emitted by infected individuals. The…

Many epidemic models are naturally defined as individual-based models: where we track the state of each individual within a susceptible population. Inference for individual-based models is challenging due to the high-dimensional state-space…