相关论文: A Two-Phase Dynamic Contagion Model for COVID-19

To forecast the time dynamics of an epidemic, we propose a discrete stochastic model that unifies and generalizes previous approaches to the subject. Viewing a given population of individuals or groups of individuals with given health state…

Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 all across the globe, we have performed simulations of a system dynamic epidemic spread model in different possible situations. The simulation, not only captures the model dynamic of the spread of…

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) which is caused by SARS-COV2 has become a pandemic. This disease is highly infectious and potentially fatal, causing a global public health concern. To contain the spread of COVID-19, governments are adopting…

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown that when the reproduction number is high and there are no proper measurements in place, the number of infected people can increase dramatically in a short time, producing a phenomenon that many…

We investigate the effects of cooperativity between contagion processes that spread and persist in a host population. We propose and analyze a dynamical model in which individuals that are affected by one transmissible agent $A$ exhibit a…

The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic affecting over 200 countries and regions. Inference about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 can provide important insights into the speed of disease spread and…

The emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States has forced federal and local governments to implement containment measures. Moreover, the severity of the situation has sparked engagement by both the research and…

We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…

A reasonable prediction of infectious diseases transmission process under different disease control strategies is an important reference point for policy makers. Here we established a dynamic transmission model via Python and realized…

Successful predictive modeling of epidemics requires an understanding of the implicit feedback control strategies which are implemented by populations to modulate the spread of contagion. While this task of capturing endogenous behavior can…

In this research, we have derived a mathematical model for within human dynamics of COVID-19 infection using delay differential equations. The new model considers a 'latent period' and 'the time for immune response' as delay parameters,…

In this article we propose a compartmental model for the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). We take into account the presence of asymptomatic infections and the main policies that have been adopted so far to contain the…

Epidemiological models with constant parameters may not capture satisfactory infection patterns in the presence of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures during a pandemic, since infectiousness is a function of time. In…

Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission typically neglect within-host dynamics. Yet within-host dynamics - including pathogen replication, host immune responses, and interactions with microbiota - are crucial not only for…

Computational multi-scale pandemic modelling remains a major and timely challenge. Here we identify specific requirements for a new class of models simulating pandemics across three scales: (1) pathogen evolution, often punctuated by the…

We present two different approaches for modeling the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Both approaches are based on the population classes susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantined, and recovered and allow for an arbitrary number of…

One of the central tools to control the COVID-19 pandemics is the knowledge of its spreading dynamics. Here we develop a fractal model capable of describe this dynamics, in term of daily new cases, and provide quantitative criteria for some…

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused tremendous amount of deaths and a devastating impact on the economic development all over the world. Thus, it is paramount to control its further transmission, for which purpose it…

We here propose to model active and cumulative cases data from COVID-19 by a continuous effective model based on a modified diffusion equation under Lifshitz scaling with a dynamic diffusion coefficient. The proposed model is rich enough to…

We introduce a mathematical description of the impact of sociality in the spread of infectious diseases by integrating an epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic modeling of population-based contacts. The kinetic description leads to study…