相关论文: Modeling and forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic …

The fast transmission rate of COVID-19 worldwide has made this virus the most important challenge of year 2020. Many mitigation policies have been imposed by the governments at different regional levels (country, state, county, and city) to…

The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, and the disease it causes, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020 by the World Health Organization. Since then, the disease has spread all over the world, with the United States becoming the…

The rapid spread of the Coronavirus SARS-2 is a major challenge that led almost all governments worldwide to take drastic measures to respond to the tragedy. Chief among those measures is the massive lockdown of entire countries and cities,…

The current outbreak is known as Coronavirus Disease or COVID-19 caused by the virus SAR-COV-2 which continues to wreak havoc across the globe. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of…

An epidemiological model for COVID-19 was developed and implemented in MATLAB/GNU Octave for use by public health practitioners, policy makers and the general public. The model distinguishes four stages in the disease: infected, sick,…

We consider the SEIRS epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. The control of the pandemic dynamics is…

COVID-19 is a new pandemic disease that is affecting almost every country with a negative impact on social life and economic activities. The number of infected and deceased patients continues to increase globally. Mathematical models can…

Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which…

We develop an agent-based model to assess the cumulative number of deaths during hypothetical Covid-19-like epidemics for various non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. We consider local and non-local modes of disease transmission. The…

The outbreak of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan and other cities in China in 2019 has become a global pandemic as declared by World Health Organization (WHO) in the first quarter of 2020 . The delay in diagnosis, limited hospital…

The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…

The pandemic caused by the novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV2 has been responsible for life threatening health complications, and extreme pressure on healthcare systems. While preventive and definite curative medical interventions are yet to…

A new epidemic model for Covid-19 has been constructed and simulated for eight US states. The coefficients for this model, based on seven coupled differential equations, are carefully evaluated against recorded data on cases and deaths.…

Non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs) play an important role in the early stage control of COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination is considered to be the inevitable course to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Based on the mechanism, a SVEIR COVID-19…

We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…

At the time of writing, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), had already resulted in more than thirty-two million cases infected and more than one million deaths worldwide.…

This work provides an overview on deterministic and stochastic models that have previously been proposed by us to study the transmission dynamics of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Europe and USA. Briefly, we describe realistic…

Understanding the number of individuals who have been infected with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, and the extent to which social distancing policies have been effective at limiting its spread, are critical for effective policy going…

We propose two stochastic models for the Coronavirus pandemic. The statistical properties of the models, in particular the correlation functions and the probability density function, have duly been computed. Our models, which generalises a…

Almost every country in the world is battling to limit the spread of COVID-19. As the world strives to get an effective medication to control the disease, appropriate intervention measures, for now, remains one of the effective methods to…