相关论文: Modeling the Heterogeneity in COVID-19's Reproduct…

Basic and instantaneous reproduction numbers, "R" _"0" and "R" _"t" , are important metrics to assess progress of an epidemic and effectiveness of preventative interventions undertaken, and also to estimate coverage needed for vaccination.…

A social (sexual) network is modeled by an extension of the configuration model to the situation where edges have weights, e.g. reflecting the number of sex-contacts between the individuals. An epidemic model is defined on the network such…

We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease with special focus on the transmissibility of super-spreaders individuals. We compute the basic reproduction number threshold, we study the local stability…

Motivated by the need for novel robust approaches to modelling the Covid-19 epidemic, this paper treats a population of $N$ individuals as an inhomogeneous random social network (IRSN). The nodes of the network represent different types of…

The COVID-19 crisis has shown that we can only prevent the risk of mass contagion through timely, large-scale, coordinated, and decisive actions. However, frequently the models used by experts [from whom decision-makers get their main…

The coronavirus pandemic has rapidly evolved into an unprecedented crisis. The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model and its variants have been used for modeling the pandemic. However, time-independent parameters in the classical…

The paper studies different regression approaches for modeling COVID-19 spread and its impact on the stock market. The logistic curve model was used with Bayesian regression for predictive analytics of the coronavirus spread. The impact of…

Epidemic models are invaluable tools to understand and implement strategies to control the spread of infectious diseases, as well as to inform public health policies and resource allocation. However, current modeling approaches have…

In epidemiology, the effective reproduction number $R_e$ is used to characterize the growth rate of an epidemic outbreak. In this paper, we investigate properties of $R_e$ for a modified SEIR model of COVID-19 in the city of Houston, TX…

We consider a flexible Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to model the age-specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on daily mortality counts. The temporal evolution of transmission rates in populations containing multiple types…

An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 15 million confirmed infections and above 6 hundred thousand reported…

We study variants of the SEIR model for interpreting some qualitative features of the statistics of the Covid-19 epidemic in France. Standard SEIR models distinguish essentially two regimes: either the disease is controlled and the number…

One of the key indicators used in tracking the evolution of an infectious disease isthe reproduction number. This quantity is usually computed using the reportednumber of cases, but ignoring that many more individuals may be infected…

Characterizing the cumulative burden of COVID-19 by race/ethnicity is of the utmost importance for public health researchers and policy makers in order to design effective mitigation measures. This analysis is hampered, however, by…

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted lives and economies across the globe, leading to many deaths. While vaccination is an important intervention, its roll-out is slow and unequal across the globe. Therefore, extensive testing still remains…

During an epidemic outbreak, decision makers crucially need accurate and robust tools to monitor the pathogen propagation. The effective reproduction number, defined as the expected number of secondary infections stemming from one…

There are many sources of data giving information about the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the population, but all have major drawbacks, including biases and delayed reporting. For example, the number of confirmed cases largely…

Susceptible-Invective-Recovered (SIR) mathematical models are in high demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They are used in their standard formulation, or through the many variants, trying to fit and hopefully predict the number of new…

COVID-19 is a new pandemic disease that is affecting almost every country with a negative impact on social life and economic activities. The number of infected and deceased patients continues to increase globally. Mathematical models can…

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown that when the reproduction number is high and there are no proper measurements in place, the number of infected people can increase dramatically in a short time, producing a phenomenon that many…