相关论文: Modeling the Heterogeneity in COVID-19's Reproduct…

The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic…

Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…

The world is still fighting against COVID-19, which has been lasting for more than a year. Till date, it has been a greatest challenge to human beings in fighting against COVID-19 since, the pathogen SARS-COV-2 that causes COVID-19 has…

This paper is an exploratory study of two epidemiological questions on a worldwide basis. How fast is the disease spreading? Are the restrictions (especially mobility restrictions) for people bring the expected effect? To answer the first…

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a great catastrophe that upended human lives and caused millions of deaths all over the world. The rapid spread of the virus, with its early-stage exponential growth and subsequent 'waves', caught many medical…

We propose a high dimensional Bayesian inference framework for learning heterogeneous dynamics of a COVID-19 model, with a specific application to the dynamics and severity of COVID-19 inside and outside long-term care (LTC) facilities. We…

In the context of natural disasters, human responses inevitably intertwine with natural factors. The COVID-19 pandemic, as a significant stress factor, has brought to light profound variations among different countries in terms of their…

We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease, showing its usefulness with respect to the pandemic in Portugal, from the first recorded case in the country till the end of the three states of…

The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…

In the face of an infectious disease, a key epidemiological measure is the basic reproduction number, which quantifies the average secondary infections caused by a single case in a susceptible population. In practice, the effective…

Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…

It is crucial for policymakers to understand the community prevalence of COVID-19 so combative resources can be effectively allocated and prioritized during the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditionally, community prevalence has been assessed…

COVID-19 has been a public health emergency of international concern since early 2020. Reliable forecasting is critical to diminish the impact of this disease. To date, a large number of different forecasting models have been proposed,…

In the recent COVID-19 pandemic, a wide range of epidemiological modelling approaches have been used to predict the effective reproduction number, R(t), and other COVID-19 related measures such as the daily rate of exponential growth, r(t).…

Large-scale testing is considered key to assess the state of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, the link between the reported case numbers and the true state of the pandemic remains elusive. We develop mathematical models based on…

In the last year many public health decisions were based on real-time monitoring the spread of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. For this one often considers the reproduction number which measures the amount of secondary cases produced by a…

Classical compartmental models in epidemiology often assume a homogeneous population for simplicity, which neglects the inherent heterogeneity among individuals. This assumption frequently leads to inaccurate predictions when applied to…

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policy-making, we formulated two types of mathematical models for COVID-19 transmission within a regional population. One is a fitting function that can be calibrated to reproduce…

Individual contributions to the spread of an epidemic vary widely due to an individual's location in a social network and their intrinsic ability to spread or contract diseases. While the effect of heterogeneous population structure and…

Genetic variations in the COVID-19 virus are one of the main causes of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in 2020 and 2021. In this article, we aim to introduce a new type of model, a system coupled with ordinary differential equations (ODEs),…