相关论文: COVID-19 in a social reinsurance framework: Forewa…

Intent of this research is to explore how mathematical models, specifically Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, can be utilized to forecast peak outbreak timeline of COVID-19 epidemic amongst a population of interest starting from the…

As a highly infectious respiratory disease, COVID-19 has become a pandemic that threatens global health. Without an effective treatment, non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as travel restrictions, have been widely promoted to mitigate…

The severe acute respiratory syndrome COVID-19 has been in the center of the ongoing global health crisis in 2020. The high prevalence of mild cases facilitates sub-notification outside hospital environments and the number of those who are…

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, officially declared a global pandemic, has a severe impact on our daily lives. As of this writing there are approximately 197,188 confirmed cases of which 80,881 are in "Mainland China" with 7,949…

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has been identified to cause acute respiratory disease in humans. An outbreak of this disease has been reported in mainland China with the city of Wuhan as the recognized epicenter. The…

This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of…

Millions of people have been infected and lakhs of people have lost their lives due to the worldwide ongoing novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. It is of utmost importance to identify the future infected cases and the virus spread rate…

The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19), emerged late December 2019 in China, is now rapidly spreading across the globe. At the time of writing this paper, the number of global confirmed cases has passed two millions and half with over…

A novel parametric regression model is proposed to fit incidence data typically collected during epidemics. The proposal is motivated by real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of the main epidemiological indicators within the first…

The application and successful utilization of technological resources in developing solutions to health, safety, and economic issues caused by COVID-19 indicate the importance of technology in curbing COVID-19. Also, the medical field has…

In a given country, the cumulative death toll of the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic follows a sigmoid curve as a function of time. In most cases, the curve is well described by the Gompertz function, which is characterized by two…

Bayesian analysis of publicly available time series of cases and fatalities in different geographical regions of India during April 2020 is reported. It is found that the initial apparent rapid growthin infections could be partly due to…

Initially emerged in the Chinese city Wuhan and subsequently spread almost worldwide causing a pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 virus follows reasonably well the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) epidemic model on contact networks in the…

COVID-19, a global pandemic of unprecedented scale, has had a profound impact on nations worldwide, resulting in the tragic loss of nearly 1.1 million lives in the United States and a staggering 7 million worldwide. In the absence of…

Forecasting the effect of COVID-19 is essential to design policies that may prepare us to handle the pandemic. Many methods have already been proposed, particularly, to forecast reported cases and deaths at country-level and state-level.…

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused one of the most serious social and economic losses to countries around the world since the Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918 (during World War I). It has resulted in enormous economic as well…

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) began in Wuhan, China, in late 2019 and to date has infected over 148M people worldwide, resulting in 3.12M deaths. On March 10, 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared it as a global…

We present an extension of the Li and Lee model to quantify mortality in five European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The first two factors are used to model the pre-COVID mortality, with the first layer modelling the common trend…

It is widely accepted that the number of reported cases during the first stages of the COVID-19 pandemic severely underestimates the number of actual cases. We leverage delay embedding theorems of Whitney and Takens and use Gaussian Process…

The global pandemic of the 2019-nCov requires the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate future social and economic costs of quarantine measures worldwide. We propose an epidemiological model for forecasting and policy evaluation…