相关论文: A Novel Methodology for Epidemic Risk Assessment o…

Started in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 has been spreading all over the world. We calibrate the logistic growth model, the generalized logistic growth model, the generalized Richards model and the generalized growth model to the reported…

The COVID-19 epidemics, started in China in January 2020, was recognized to have reached Italy around February 20; recent estimates show that most probably the virus circulated in the country already in January, but was not recognized. Data…

The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions…

We use data from 107 Italian provinces to characterize and compare mortality patterns in the first two COVID-19 epidemic waves, which occurred prior to the introduction of vaccines. We also associate these patterns with mobility, timing of…

We introduce an extended generalised logistic growth model for discrete outcomes, in which a network structure can be specified to deal with spatial dependence and time dependence is dealt with using an Auto-Regressive approach. A major…

In this paper we propose an epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19. The dynamics of the spread is based on four fundamental categories of people in a population: Tested and infected, Non-Tested but infected, Tested but not…

We give some numerical observations on the total number of infected by the SARS-CoV-2 in Italy. The analysis is based on a tanh formula involving two parameters. A polynomial correlation between the parameters gives an upper bound for the…

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…

As a consequence of missing data on tests for infection and imperfect accuracy of tests, reported rates of population infection by the SARS CoV-2 virus are lower than actual rates of infection. Hence, reported rates of severe illness…

I use a very simple deterministic model for the spread of Covid-19 in a large population. Using this to compare the relative decay of the number of deaths per day between different regions in Italy, Spain and England, each applying in…

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus disease which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It originated in China in the month of December 2019 and quickly started to spread within the country. On 31st…

We have proposed a new form of growth rate for population ecology. Generally, the growth rate is dependent on the size of the population at that particular epoch. We have introduced an alternative time-dependent form of growth rate. This…

The results of an alternative methodology for making predictions about the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece are presented. Instead of focusing on the various population profiles (subjected to instabilities introduced by the fitting process),…

We measure the public concern during the outbreak of COVID-19 disease using three data sources from Google Trends (YouTube, Google News, and Google Search). Our findings are three-fold. First, the public concern in Italy is found to be a…

An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 15 million confirmed infections and above 6 hundred thousand reported…

In this investigation I used the Logistic Model to fit the COVID-19 pandemic data for some countries. The data modeled is the death numbers per day in China, Iran, Italy, South Korea, Spain and United States. Considering the current growth…

The spread of COVID-19 has become a significant and troubling aspect of society in 2020. With millions of cases reported across countries, new outbreaks have occurred and followed patterns of previously affected areas. Many disease…

The spreading dynamics of infectious diseases is influenced by individual behaviours, which are in turn affected by the level of awareness about the epidemic. Modelling the co-evolution of disease transmission and behavioural changes within…

Given the urgent informational needs connected with the diffusion of infection with regard to the COVID-19 pandemic, in this paper, we propose a sampling design for building a continuous-time surveillance system. Compared with other…

The Coronavirus, also known as the COVID-19 virus, has emerged in Wuhan China since late November 2019. Since that time, it has been spreading at large-scale until today all around the world. It is currently recognized as the world's most…