相关论文: A Novel Methodology for Epidemic Risk Assessment o…

In a recent report we have collected some data about the COVID-19 epidemics in Northern Italy; in this follow-up we analyze how these changed after the mild restrictive measures taken by the Government two weeks ago and the large campaign…

Determinants of COVID-19 clinical severity are commonly assessed by transverse or longitudinal studies of the fatality counts. However, the fatality counts depend both on disease clinical severity and transmissibility, as more infected also…

Currently, novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a big threat to global health. The rapid spread of the virus has created pandemic, and countries all over the world are struggling with a surge in COVID-19 infected cases. There are no…

Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different…

The dynamics of epidemics depend on how people's behavior changes during an outbreak. At the beginning of the epidemic, people do not know about the virus, then, after the outbreak of epidemics and alarm, they begin to comply with the…

In this study, we propose a time-dependent Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States of America, Italy and Iceland using public…

We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…

Pandemic control measures like lock-down, restrictions on restaurants and gatherings, social-distancing have shown to be effective in curtailing the spread of COVID-19. However, their sustained enforcement has negative economic effects. To…

As a highly infectious respiratory disease, COVID-19 has become a pandemic that threatens global health. Without an effective treatment, non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as travel restrictions, have been widely promoted to mitigate…

The current COVID-19 pandemic is having detrimental consequences worldwide. The pandemic started to develop strongly by the end of January and beginning of February 2020, first in China with subsequent rapid spread to other countries with…

Emerging in December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread health, economic, and social disruptions. Rapid global transmission overwhelmed healthcare systems, resulting in high infection rates, hospitalisations, and fatalities. To…

A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region of Wuhan at the end of last year; since then the virus spread to other countries, including most of Europe. We propose a differential equation governing the…

The objective of this work is to predict the spread of COVID-19 starting from observed data, using a forecast method inspired by probabilistic weather prediction systems operational today. Results show that this method works well for China:…

We introduce a new probabilistic model to estimate the real spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus along regions or countries. Our model simulates the behavior of each individual in a population according to a probabilistic model through an…

In a previous note we made an analysis of the spreading of the COVID disease in Italy. We used a model based on the logistic and Hubbert functions, the analysis we exploited has shown limited usefulness in terms of predictions and failed in…

In this paper, we introduce a novel modeling framework for incorporating fear of infection and frustration with social distancing into disease dynamics. We show that the resulting SEIR behavior-perception model has three principal modes of…

The dataset described in this paper contains daily data about COVID-19 cases that occurred in Italy over the period from Jan. 28, 2020 to March 20, 2021, divided into ten age classes of the population, the first class being 0-9 years, the…

The adoption of containment measures to reduce the amplitude of the epidemic peak is a key aspect in tackling the rapid spread of an epidemic. Classical compartmental models must be modified and studied to correctly describe the effects of…

We present Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) statistics in China dataset: daily statistics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China at the city/county level. For each city/country, we include the six most important numbers for epidemic research:…

In this paper, we develop a method to estimate the infection-rate of a disease, over a region, as a field that varies in space and time. To do so, we use time-series of case-counts of symptomatic patients as observed in the areal units that…