相关论文: A Novel Methodology for Epidemic Risk Assessment o…

In this note, we describe simple generalizations of the basic SIR model for epidemic, in case of a multi-region scenario, to be used for predicting the COVID-19 epidemic spread in Italy.

The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most pressing issues at present. A question which is particularly important for governments and policy makers is the following: Does the virus spread in the same way in different countries? Or are there…

The data on number of registered cases of COVID-19 disease in twenty European countries is analyzed by the least-squares fitting procedure with generic analytic functions. Three regimes of the expansion of the disease are identified and…

We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit different parts of the world differently: some regions are still in the rise of the first wave, other regions are now facing a decline after a first wave, and yet other regions have started to see a second…

Background: Northern Italy was one of the most impacted areas by COVID. It is now widely assumed that the virus was silently spreading for at least 2 weeks before the first patient was identified. During this silent phase, and in the…

During an ongoing epidemic, especially in the case of a new agent, data are partial and sparse, also affected by external factors as for example climatic effects or preparedness and response capability of healthcare structures. Despite that…

Understanding collective mobility patterns is crucial to plan the restart of production and economic activities, which are currently put in stand-by to fight the diffusion of the epidemics. In this report, we use mobile phone data to infer…

The presence of a large number of infected individuals with few or no symptoms is an important epidemiological difficulty and the main mathematical feature of COVID-19. The A-SIR model, i.e. a SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model with a…

I propose novel partial identification bounds on infection prevalence from information on test rate and test yield. The approach utilizes user-specified bounds on (i) test accuracy and (ii) the extent to which tests are targeted, formalized…

A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic calls for a multi-faceted public health response comprising complementary interventions to control the spread of the disease while vaccines and therapies are developed. Many of these interventions need to be…

The COVID-19 disease spreads swiftly, and nearly three months after the first positive case was confirmed in China, Coronavirus started to spread all over the United States. Some states and counties reported high number of positive cases…

The daily fluctuations in the released number of Covid-19 cases played a big role both at the beginning and in the most critical weeks of the outbreak, when local authorities in Italy had to decide whether to impose a lockdown and at which…

The outbreak of COVID-19 i.e. a variation of coronavirus, also known as novel corona virus causing respiratory disease is a big concern worldwide since the end of December 2019. As of September 12, 2020, it has turned into an epidemic…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern affecting more than 200 countries and territories worldwide. As of September 30, 2020, it has caused a pandemic outbreak with more than 33…

The novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a severe respiratory infection that officially occurred in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. In late February, the disease began to spread quickly across the world, causing serious health, social,…

There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the…

The purpose of this work is to give a contribution to the understanding of the COVID-19 contagion in Italy. To this end, we developed a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the contagion, and we used official data of the…

With the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, various studies have focused on predicting the trajectory and risk factors of the virus and its variants. Building on previous work that addressed this problem using genetic and epidemiological…