相关论文: Stochastic modeling and estimation of COVID-19 pop…

The aim of the paper is to describe two models of Covid-19 infection dynamics. For this purpose a special class of branching processes with two types of individuals is considered. These models are intended to use only the observed daily…

We propose a mathematical model to analyze the time evolution of the total number of infected population with Covid-19 disease at a region in the ongoing pandemic. Using the available data of Covid-19 infected population on various…

Breaking a complex bio-social phenomenon (epidemic) into its components, considering the processes that determine its dynamics, formalizing the accepted hypotheses in mathematical equations, selecting appropriate experimental and…

Two stochastic models are proposed to describe the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first model the population is partitioned into four compartments: susceptible $S$, infected $I$, removed $R$ and dead people $D$. In order to have…

This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of…

Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…

In this paper we propose an epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19. The dynamics of the spread is based on four fundamental categories of people in a population: Tested and infected, Non-Tested but infected, Tested but not…

To forecast the time dynamics of an epidemic, we propose a discrete stochastic model that unifies and generalizes previous approaches to the subject. Viewing a given population of individuals or groups of individuals with given health state…

The spread of COVID-19 has been greatly impacted by regulatory policies and behavior patterns that vary across counties, states, and countries. Population-level dynamics of COVID-19 can generally be described using a set of ordinary…

A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…

Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…

Large-scale testing is considered key to assess the state of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, the link between the reported case numbers and the true state of the pandemic remains elusive. We develop mathematical models based on…

An individual-based model of the infectious disease spread among the urban population is considered. A system of stochastic equations, which describes changes in quantities of four population groups, susceptible, exposed, infected…

COVID-19 has resulted in a public health global crisis. The pandemic control necessitates epidemic models that capture the trends and impacts on infectious individuals. Many exciting models can implement this but they lack practical…

To model the evolution of diseases with extended latency periods and the presence of asymptomatic patients like COVID-19, we define a simple discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model. We include both latent periods as well as the…

The paper presents classification and analysis of the mathematical models of COVID-19 spread in different groups of populations such as the family, school, office (3-100 people), neighborhood (100-5000 people), city, region (0.5-15 million…

In this article we propose a compartmental model for the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). We take into account the presence of asymptomatic infections and the main policies that have been adopted so far to contain the…

In this paper, we propose a dynamical model to describe the transmission of COVID-19, which is spreading in China and many other countries. To avoid a larger outbreak in the worldwide, Chinese government carried out a series of strong…

In this paper, we develop an extension of standard epidemiological models, suitable for COVID-19. This extension incorporates the transmission due to pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic carriers of the virus. Furthermore, this model also…

The interpretation of sampling data plays a crucial role in policy response to the spread of a disease during an epidemic, such as the COVID-19 epidemic of 2020. However, this is a non-trivial endeavor due to the complexity of real world…