相关论文: Excess deaths and Hurricane Mar\'ia

Climate extremes, such as hurricanes, combined with large-scale integration of environment-sensitive renewables, could exacerbate the risk of widespread power outages. We introduce a coupled climate-energy model for cascading power outages,…

Human mobility is influenced by environmental change and natural disasters. Researchers have used trip distance distribution, radius of gyration of movements, and individuals' visited locations to understand and capture human mobility…

Social networks can serve as a valuable communication channel for calls for help, offering assistance, and coordinating rescue activities in disaster. Social networks such as Twitter allow users to continuously update relevant information,…

Predicting the risk of mortality for patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) using electronic health records (EHRs) data can help identify risky patients who might need more tailored care. In our previous work, we built…

Estimating the number of migrants who die or go missing along dangerous routes such as the Central Mediterranean remains challenging as available records are incomplete. Some incidents are never documented, and fatalities associated with…

Burden of disease measures the impact of living with illness and injury and dying prematurely and it is increasing worldwide leading cause of death both global and national. This paper aimed to propose an index of diseases and evaluate a…

Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…

This paper presents a modeling approach for probabilistic estimation of hurricane wind-induced damage to infrastructural assets. In our approach, we employ a Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) model for estimating spatially-varying…

Stochastic compartmental models are important tools for understanding the course of infectious diseases epidemics in populations and in prospective evaluation of intervention policies. However, calculating the likelihood for discretely…

In earlier work we considered methods for predicting future levels of hurricane activity based on the assumption that historical mean activity was at one constant level from 1900 to 1994, and has been at another constant level since then.…

We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme that relies, in part, on statistical modelling of the empirical relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and landfalling hurricane numbers. We test out a number of simple…

Objective: To make an estimate of the excess deaths caused by COVID-19 in the non-violent mortality of Peru, controlling for the effect of quarantine. Methods: Analysis of longitudinal data from the departments of Peru using official public…

In temperate climates, mortality is seasonal with a winter-dominant pattern, due in part to pneumonia and influenza. Cardiac causes, which are the leading cause of death in the United States, are also winter-seasonal although it is not…

In this paper, we predict severity of extreme weather events (tropical storms, hurricanes, etc.) using buoy data time series variables such as wind speed and air temperature. The prediction/forecasting method is based on various forecasting…

A set of 50,000 artificial Earth impacting asteroids was used to obtain, for the first time, information about the dominance of individual impact effects such as wind blast, overpressure shock, thermal radiation, cratering, seismic shaking,…

Seasonal point processes refer to stochastic models for random events which are only observed in a given season. We develop nonparametric Bayesian methodology to study the dynamic evolution of a seasonal marked point process intensity. We…

Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…

A typical random effects meta-analysis of odds-ratios assumes binomially distributed numbers of events in a treatment and control group and requires the proportion of deaths to be extracted from published papers. This data is often not…

This paper extends the Lee-Carter model for single- and multi-populations to account for pandemic jump effects of vanishing kind, allowing for a more comprehensive and accurate representation of mortality rates during a pandemic,…

We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…