相关论文: Excess deaths and Hurricane Mar\'ia

We present a statistical model for the unconditional mean tracks of hurricanes. Our model is a semi-parametric scheme that averages together observed hurricane displacements. It has a single parameter that defines the averaging length…

Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The…

One possible method for the year-ahead prediction of hurricane numbers would be to make a year-ahead prediction of sea surface temperature (SST), and then to apply relationships that link SST to hurricane numbers. As a first step towards…

According to the Center of Disease Control (CDC), the Opioid epidemic has claimed more than 72,000 lives in the US in 2017 alone. In spite of various efforts at the local, state and federal level, the impact of the epidemic is becoming…

We consider two ways that one might convert a prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) into a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers. First, one might regress historical numbers of landfalling hurricanes onto historical SSTs, and…

This research explores the potential to analyze bank card payments and ATM cash withdrawals in order to map and quantify how people are impacted by and recover from natural disasters. Our approach defines a disaster-affected community's…

The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality has become a major public health problem worldwide, especially among older adults living in low- to middle-income countries. This study aimed to investigate the effects of heat waves and…

Cities are complex systems comprised of socioeconomic systems relying on critical services delivered by multiple physical infrastructure networks. Due to interdependencies between social and physical systems, disruptions caused by natural…

Storm surge is a major natural hazard in coastal regions, responsible both for significant property damage and loss of life. Accurate, efficient models of storm surge are needed both to assess long-term risk and to guide emergency…

We provide forecasts for mortality rates by using two different approaches. First we employ dynamic non-linear logistic models based on Heligman-Pollard formula. Second, we assume that the dynamics of the mortality rates can be modelled…

We perform an objective change-point analysis on 106 years of historical hurricane number data. The algorithm we use looks at all possible combinations of change-points and compares them in terms of the variances of the differences between…

Hurricane evacuation, ordered to save lives of people of coastal regions, generates high traffic demand with increased crash risk. To mitigate such risk, transportation agencies need to anticipate highway locations with high crash risks to…

Heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the United States. Compared with risk assessment guidelines that require manual calculation of scores, machine learning-based prediction for disease outcomes such as mortality can be…

Social media posts contain an abundant amount of information about public opinion on major events, especially natural disasters such as hurricanes. Posts related to an event, are usually published by the users who live near the place of the…

Annual levels of US landfalling hurricane activity averaged over the last 11 years (1995-2005) are higher than those averaged over the previous 95 years (1900-1994). How, then, should we best predict hurricane activity rates for next year?…

This paper considers the problem of forecasting mortality rates. A large number of models have already been proposed for this task, but they generally have the disadvantage of either estimating the model in a two-step process, possibly…

One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion.…

Physics simulation results of natural processes usually do not fully capture the real world. This is caused for instance by limits in what physical processes are simulated and to what accuracy. In this work we propose and analyze the use of…

Bayesian models are increasing fit to large administrative data sets and then used to make individualized recommendations. For instance, Medicare's Hospital Compare webpage provides information to patients about specific hospital mortality…

Our paper computationally explores the extinction dynamics of an animal species effected by a sudden spike in mortality due to an extreme event. In our study, the animal species has a 2-year life cycle and is endowed with a high survival…