相关论文: Excess deaths and Hurricane Mar\'ia

Natural disasters can have devastating and long-lasting effects on a community's emotional well-being. These effects may be distributed unequally, affecting some communities more profoundly and possibly over longer time periods than others.…

Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic. We find that, controlling for the cold tongue index and the North Atlantic…

The improvement of mortality projection is a pivotal topic in the diverse branches related to insurance, demography, and public policy. Motivated by the thread of Lee-Carter related models, we propose a Bayesian model to estimate and…

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, empirical data have revealed that large-scale health crises not only cause immediate disruptions in mortality dynamics but also have persistent effects that may last for several years. Existing…

Traffic prediction during hurricane evacuation is essential for optimizing the use of transportation infrastructures. It can reduce evacuation time by providing information on future congestion in advance. However, evacuation traffic…

We study collective attention paid towards hurricanes through the lens of $n$-grams on Twitter, a social media platform with global reach. Using hurricane name mentions as a proxy for awareness, we find that the exogenous temporal dynamics…

Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…

We compare two methods for making predictions of the climatological distribution of the number of hurricanes making landfall along short sections of the North American coastline. The first method uses local data, and the second method uses…

Hurricanes cause significant economic and human costs, requiring individuals to make critical evacuation decisions under uncertainty and stress. To enhance the understanding of this decision-making process, we propose using Bayesian…

Hurricanes severely disrupt infrastructure and restrict access to essential services. While the physical impacts on post-disaster mobility are well studied, less is known about how individual travel behaviors change during and after…

Significant negative impacts are observed in productivity, economy, and social wellbeing because of the reduced human activity due to extreme events. Community resilience is an important and widely used concept to understand the impacts of…

Estimating the true mortality burden of COVID-19 for every country in the world is a difficult, but crucial, public health endeavor. Attributing deaths, direct or indirect, to COVID-19 is problematic. A more attainable target is the "excess…

Hurricanes rank among the most destructive natural hazards. They are complex phenomena that can cause both direct damage along their path and indirect impacts due to heavy rainfall and strong winds, with effects varying according to…

This paper introduces a probabilistic framework to quantify community vulnerability towards power losses due to extreme weather events. To analyze the impact of weather events on the power grid, the wind fields of historical hurricanes from…

The current outbreak of COVID-19 has called renewed attention to the need for sound statistical analysis for monitoring mortality patterns and trends over time. Excess mortality has been suggested as the most appropriate indicator to…

El Nino is an extreme weather event featuring unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon is characterized by heavy rains and floods that negatively affect the economic activities of the…

This paper delves into the impact of natural disasters on affected populations and underscores the imperative of reducing disaster-related fatalities through proactive strategies. On average, approximately 45,000 individuals succumb…

With climate change accelerating, the frequency of climate disasters is expected to increase in the decades to come. There is ongoing debate as to how different climatic regions will be affected by such an acceleration. In this paper, we…

Based on realistic estimates of geophysical conditions it is demonstrated that by practical means; (1) the intensity of a hurricane can be diminished before making landfall; (2) and other circumstances, a potential hurricane might be…

Particularly important to hurricane risk assessment for coastal regions is finding accurate approximations of return probabilities of maximum windspeeds. Since extremes in maximum windspeed have a direct relationship to minimums in the…