相关论文: Kelly Criterion: From a Simple Random Walk to L\'{…
The Bernoulli sieve is a version of the classical balls-in-boxes occupancy scheme, in which random frequencies of infinitely many boxes are produced by a multiplicative random walk, also known as the residual allocation model or…
All proper scoring rules incentivize an expert to predict \emph{accurately} (report their true estimate), but not all proper scoring rules equally incentivize \emph{precision}. Rather than treating the expert's belief as exogenously given,…
As a strategy to complete games quickly, we investigate one-dimensional random walks where the step length increases deterministically upon each return to the origin. When the step length after the kth return equals k, the displacement of…
We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework for multi-objective decision-making, where the agent seeks to optimize a vector of rewards rather than a single scalar value. The objective is to ensure that the time-averaged reward vector…
The paper addresses the problem of computing maximal conditional expected accumulated rewards until reaching a target state (briefly called maximal conditional expectations) in finite-state Markov decision processes where the condition is…
In information theory, one area of interest is gambling, where mutual information characterizes the maximal gain in wealth growth rate due to knowledge of side information; the betting strategy that achieves this maximum is named the Kelly…
In late May of 2014 I received an email from a colleague introducing to me a non-transitive game developed by Walter Penney. This paper explores this probability game from the perspective of a coin tossing game, and further discusses some…
Chances of a gambler are always lower than chances of a casino in the case of an ideal, mathematically perfect roulette, if the capital of the gambler is limited and the minimum and maximum allowed bets are limited by the casino. However, a…
The probability that a user will click a search result depends both on its relevance and its position on the results page. The position based model explains this behavior by ascribing to every item an attraction probability, and to every…
Stochastic billiards can be used for approximate sampling from the boundary of a bounded convex set through the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) paradigm. This paper studies how many steps of the underlying Markov chain are required to get…
We present a dynamic prediction framework for binary sequences that is based on a Bernoulli generalization of the auto-regressive process. Our approach lends itself easily to variants of the standard link prediction problem for a sequence…
The prospects of Kahneman and Tversky, Mega Million and Powerball lotteries, St. Petersburg paradox, premature profits and growing losses criticized by Livermore are reviewed under an angle of view comparing mathematical expectations with…
We develop horizon-aware anytime-valid tests and confidence sequences for bounded means under a strict deadline $N$. Using the betting/e-process framework, we cast horizon-aware betting as a finite-horizon optimal control problem with state…
Lotteries are a prevalent form of gambling between a seller and buyers. Designing a lottery requires a model of how buyers make decisions when confronted with uncertain outcomes. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is a descriptive model that…
The Chernoff bound is a well-known tool for obtaining a high probability bound on the expectation of a Bernoulli random variable in terms of its sample average. This bound is commonly used in statistical learning theory to upper bound the…
To investigate a time-consistent optimal strategy for the continuous time mean-variance model, we develop a new method to establish the Bellman principle. Based on this new method, we obtain a time-consistent dynamic optimal strategy that…
Prediction and modelling of competitive sports outcomes has received much recent attention, especially from the Bayesian statistics and machine learning communities. In the real world setting of outcome prediction, the seminal \'{E}l\H{o}…
With the vast amount of data collected on football and the growth of computing abilities, many games involving decision choices can be optimized. The underlying rule is the maximization of an expected utility of outcomes and the law of…
There are $n$ independent Bernoulli random variables $I_{k}$ with parameters $p_{k}$ that are observed sequentially. We consider a generalization of the Last-Success-Problem considering $w_{k}$ positive payments if the player successfully…
Option-critic learning is a general-purpose reinforcement learning (RL) framework that aims to address the issue of long term credit assignment by leveraging temporal abstractions. However, when dealing with extended timescales, discounting…