相关论文: St. Petersburg paradox and failure probability

The computational analysis of fiber network fracture is an emerging field with application to paper, rubber-like materials, hydrogels, soft biological tissue, and composites. Fiber networks are often described as probabilistic structures of…

If no optimal propositional proof system exists, we (and independently Pudl\'ak) prove that ruling out length $t$ proofs of any unprovable sentence is hard. This mapping from unprovable to hard-to-prove sentences powerfully translates facts…

The failure of materials and interfaces is mediated by cracks, nearly singular dissipative structures that propagate at velocities approaching the speed of sound. Crack initiation and subsequent propagation -- the dynamic process of…

Adaptive dynamical systems arise in a multitude of contexts, e.g., optimization, control, communications, signal processing, and machine learning. A precise characterization of their fundamental limitations is therefore of paramount…

We propose an algorithm for an optimal adaptive selection of points from the design domain of input random variables that are needed for an accurate estimation of failure probability and the determination of the boundary between safe and…

A Markovian bridge is a probability measure taken from a disintegration of the law of an initial part of the path of a Markov process given its terminal value. As such, Markovian bridges admit a natural parameterization in terms of the…

We present a comprehensive review of the current state of fracture phenomena in transient networks, a wide class of viscoelastic fluids. We will first define what is a fracture in a complex fluid, and recall the main structural and…

Power grid outages cause huge economical and societal costs. Disruptions in the power distribution grid are responsible for a significant fraction of electric power unavailability to customers. The impact of extreme weather conditions,…

Cascading failure models are typically used to capture the phenomenon where failures possibly trigger further failures in succession, causing knock-on effects. In many networks this ultimately leads to a disintegrated network where the…

The majority of existing probabilistic model checking case studies are based on well understood theoretical models and distributions. However, real-life probabilistic systems usually involve distribution parameters whose values are obtained…

A model is constructed and a paradox concerning the proper direction and magnitude of the external force to maintain the equilibrium state of a parallel plate capacitor system is raised. By a thorough study of the model using different…

Braess \cite{1} has been studied about a traffic flow on a diamond type network and found that introducing new edges to the networks always does not achieve the efficiency. Some researchers studied the Braess' paradox in similar type…

In order to simulate observational and experimental situations, we consider a leak in the phase space of a chaotic dynamical system. We obtain an expression for the escape rate of the survival probability applying the theory of transient…

Explanations of the replication crisis often emphasize misconduct, questionable research practices, or incentive misalignment, implying that behavioral reform is sufficient. This paper argues that a substantial component is architectural:…

We investigate a class of stochastic fragmentation processes involving stable and unstable fragments. We solve analytically for the fragment length density and find that a generic algebraic divergence characterizes its small-size tail.…

Meta-analysis is an important tool for combining results from multiple studies and has been widely used in evidence-based medicine for several decades. This paper reports, for the first time, an interesting and valuable paradox in…

We report our initial investigations into reliability and path-finding based models and propose future areas of interest. Inspired by broken sidewalks during on-campus construction projects, we develop two models for navigating this…

A fifty-year old apparently paradoxical thought experiment involving two accelerating spaceships and a thread hat connects them states that the thread will break due to length contraction. This paradox still appears to be regarded by some…

Many natural systems show emergent phenomena at different scales, leading to scaling regimes with signatures of chaos at large scales and an apparently random behavior at small scales. These features are usually investigated quantitatively…

We introduce a novel machine learning method called the Penalized Profile Support Vector Machine based on the Gabriel edited set for the computation of the probability of failure for a complex system as determined by a threshold condition…