相关论文: On risk models with dependence

We study the discrete time risk process modelled by the skip-free random walk and we derive the results connected to the ruin probability, such as crossing the fixed level, for this kind of process. We use the method relying on the…

A probabilistic method for solving time-dependent load-transfer models of fracture is developed. It is applicable to any rule of load redistribution, i.e, local, hierarchical, etc. In the new method, the fluctuations are generated during…

The success of large-scale models in recent years has increased the importance of statistical models with numerous parameters. Several studies have analyzed over-parameterized linear models with high-dimensional data, which may not be…

This project works with the risk model developed by Li et al. (2015) and quests modelling, estimating and pricing insurance for risks brought in by innovative technologies, or other emerging or latent risks. The model considers two…

In this paper, we study large losses arising from defaults of a credit portfolio. We assume that the portfolio dependence structure is modelled by the Archimedean copula family as opposed to the widely used Gaussian copula. The resulting…

Many modern computational approaches to classical problems in quantitative finance are formulated as empirical loss minimization (ERM), allowing direct applications of classical results from statistical machine learning. These methods,…

We start by showing that the finite-time absolute ruin probability in the classical risk model with constant interest force can be expressed in terms of the transition probability of a positive Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type process, say X. Our…

Prior elicitation methods for Bayesian analyses transfigure prior information into quantifiable prior distributions. Recently, methods that leverage copulas have been proposed to accommodate more flexible dependence structures when…

Lundberg-type inequalities for ruin probabilities of non-homogeneous risk models are presented in this paper. By employing martingale method, the upper bounds of ruin probabilities are obtained for the general risk models under weak…

Many environmental processes exhibit weakening spatial dependence as events become more extreme. Well-known limiting models, such as max-stable or generalized Pareto processes, cannot capture this, which can lead to a preference for models…

The paper investigates a discrete time Binomial risk model with different types of polices and shock events may influence some of the claim sizes. It is shown that this model can be considered as a particular case of the classical compound…

We consider a structural default model in an interconnected banking network as in Lipton [International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 19(6), 2016], with mutual obligations between each pair of banks. We analyse the model…

We study regression models for the situation where both dependent and independent variables are square-integrable stochastic processes. Questions concerning the definition and existence of the corresponding functional linear regression…

We develop estimation and inference methods for a stylized macroeconomic model with potentially multiple behavioural equilibria, where agents form expectations using a constant-gain learning rule. We first show geometric ergodicity of the…

Graphical models are widely used in diverse application domains to model the conditional dependencies amongst a collection of random variables. In this paper, we consider settings where the graph structure is covariate-dependent, and…

In this paper, we examine two problems on applied probability, which are directly connected with the dependence in presence of heavy tails. The first problem, is related to max-sum equivalence of the randomly weighted sums in bi-variate set…

Machine learning has revitalized causal inference by combining flexible models and principled estimators, yet robust benchmarking and evaluation remain challenging with real-world data. In this work, we introduce frengression, a deep…

Insurance and annuity products covering several lives require the modelling of the joint distribution of future lifetimes. In the interest of simplifying calculations, it is common in practice to assume that the future lifetimes among a…

Although species longevity is subject to a diverse range of selective forces, the mortality curves of a wide variety of organisms are rather similar. We argue that aging and its universal characteristics may have evolved by means of a…

A system is considered, which is subject to external and possibly fatal shocks, with dependence between the fatality of a shock and the system age. Apart from these shocks, the system suffers from competing soft and sudden failures, where…