相关论文: Modelling extreme claims via composite models and …

Multivariate peaks over thresholds modeling based on generalized Pareto distributions has up to now only been used in few and mostly 2-dimensional situations. This paper contributes theoretical understanding, physically based models,…

We develop a class of non-life reserving models using a stable-1/2 random bridge to simulate the accumulation of paid claims, allowing for an essentially arbitrary choice of a priori distribution for the ultimate loss. Taking an…

The study of loss function distributions is critical to characterize a model's behaviour on a given machine learning problem. For example, while the quality of a model is commonly determined by the average loss assessed on a testing set,…

The estimation of conditional quantiles at extreme tails is of great interest in numerous applications. Various methods that integrate regression analysis with an extrapolation strategy derived from extreme value theory have been proposed…

The key issue in importance sampling is the choice of the alternative sampling distribution, which is often chosen from the exponential tilt family of the underlying distribution. However, when the problem exhibits certain kind of…

When analysing extreme values, two alternative statistical approaches have historically been held in contention: the block maxima method (or annual maxima method, spurred by hydrological applications) and the peaks-over-threshold. Clamoured…

While machine-learning models are flourishing and transforming many aspects of everyday life, the inability of humans to understand complex models poses difficulties for these models to be fully trusted and embraced. Thus, interpretability…

Estimation of tail quantities, such as expected shortfall or Value at Risk, is a difficult problem. We show how the theory of nonlinear expectations, in particular the Data-robust expectation introduced in [5], can assist in the…

A popular technique for selecting and tuning machine learning estimators is cross-validation. Cross-validation evaluates overall model fit, usually in terms of predictive accuracy. In causal inference, the optimal choice of estimator…

The tail of a bivariate distribution function in the domain of attraction of a bivariate extreme-value distribution may be approximated by the one of its extreme-value attractor. The extreme-value attractor has margins that belong to a…

The control and risk assessment in complex information systems require to take into account extremes arising from nodes with large node degrees. Various sampling techniques like a Page Rank random walk, a Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain…

Handling multiplicity without losing much power has been a persistent challenge in various fields that often face the necessity of managing numerous statistical tests simultaneously. Recently, $p$-value combination methods based on…

Portfolio sorting is ubiquitous in the empirical finance literature, where it has been widely used to identify pricing anomalies. Despite its popularity, little attention has been paid to the statistical properties of the procedure. We…

In this paper we consider the estimation problem for high quantiles of a heavy-tailed distribution from block data when only a few largest values are observed within blocks. We propose estimators for high quantiles and prove that these…

Background: The proportional odds (PO) model is the most common analytic method for ordinal outcomes in randomised controlled trials. While parameter estimates obtained under departures from PO can be interpreted as an average odds ratio,…

The extrapolation of extremes to values beyond the span of stationary univariate historical data is considered from Bayesian and Frequentist perspectives. The intention is to make predictions which in some sense "preserve probability". A…

We propose a semiparametric method for fitting the tail of a heavy-tailed population given a relatively small sample from that population and a larger sample from a related background population. We model the tail of the small sample as an…

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

We give an overview of several aspects arising in the statistical analysis of extreme risks with actuarial applications in view. In particular it is demonstrated that empirical process theory is a very powerful tool, both for the asymptotic…

This article presents methods for estimating extreme probabilities, beyond the range of the observations. These methods are model-free and applicable to almost any sample size. They are grounded in order statistics theory and have a wide…