相关论文: The effects of degrees of freedom estimation in th…
We develop a procedure for forecasting the volatility of a time series immediately following a news shock. Adapting the similarity-based framework of Lin and Eck (2020), we exploit series that have experienced similar shocks. We aggregate…
Generalized estimating equations (GEE) are widely used to analyze longitudinal data; however, they are not appropriate for heteroscedastic data, because they only estimate regressor effects on the mean response{\textemdash}and therefore do…
We consider a class of M-estimators of the parameters of a GARCH (p,q) model. These estimators involve score functions and, for adequate choices of the score functions, are asymptotically normal under milder moment assumptions than the…
We address the problem of learning graphical models which correspond to high dimensional autoregressive stationary stochastic processes. A graphical model describes the conditional dependence relations among the components of a stochastic…
Several academics have studied the ability of hybrid models mixing univariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and neural networks to deliver better volatility predictions than purely econometric…
We give a general result on the effective degrees of freedom for nonlinear least squares estimation, which relates the degrees of freedom to the divergence of the estimator. We show that in a general framework, the divergence of the least…
Two formulations are proposed to filter out correlations in the residuals of the multivariate GARCH model. The first approach is to estimate the correlation matrix as a parameter and transform any joint distribution to have an arbitrary…
We develop a sharp, experiment-level privacy theory for amplification by shuffling in the Gaussian regime: a fixed finite-output local randomizer with full support and neighboring binary datasets differing in one user. We first prove exact…
This work presents the spatial error model with heteroskedasticity, which allows the joint modeling of the parameters associated with both the mean and the variance, within a traditional approach to spatial econometrics. The estimation…
In this paper, we test a partially segmented ICAPM for two developed markets, two emerging markets and World market, using an asymmetric extension of the multivariate GARCH process of De Santis and Gerard (1997,1998). We find that this…
Volatility asymmetry is a hot topic in high-frequency financial market. In this paper, we propose a new econometric model, which could describe volatility asymmetry based on high-frequency historical data and low-frequency historical data.…
We investigate shrinkage priors on power spectral densities for complex-valued circular-symmetric autoregressive processes. We construct shrinkage predictive power spectral densities, which asymptotically dominate (i) the Bayesian…
We propose a set of dependence measures that are non-linear, local, invariant to a wide range of transformations on the marginals, can show tail and risk asymmetries, are always well-defined, are easy to estimate and can be used on any…
We consider the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox from an objective Bayesian perspective by attempting to find priors representing complete indifference to sample size in the problem. This means that we ensure that the prior for the unknown mean and…
Grassland ecosystems support a wide range of species and provide key services including food production, carbon storage, biodiversity support, and flood mitigation. However, yield stability in these grassland systems is not yet well…
Motivated by the proliferation of extensive macroeconomic and health datasets necessitating accurate forecasts, a novel approach is introduced to address Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. This approach employs the global-local…
We argue that spanning large numbers of degrees of freedom in empirical analysis allows better characterizations of effects and thus improves the trustworthiness of conclusions. Our ideas are illustrated in three studies: equity premium…
Generalised Degrees of Freedom (GDF), as defined by Ye (1998 JASA 93:120-131), represent the sensitivity of model fits to perturbations of the data. As such they can be computed for any statistical model, making it possible, in principle,…
The use of improper priors in the context of Bayesian hierarchical linear mixed models has been studied under the assumption of normality of the random effects. We study the propriety of the posterior under more flexible distributional…
Contemporary time series data often feature objects connected by a social network that naturally induces temporal dependence involving connected neighbours. The network vector autoregressive model is useful for describing the influence of…