相关论文: Uncertainty Quantification in Stochastic Economic …

This paper introduces quantum computing methods for Monte Carlo simulations in power systems which are expected to be exponentially faster than their classical computing counterparts. Monte Carlo simulations is a fundamental method, widely…

Computer models, also known as simulators, can be computationally expensive to run, and for this reason statistical surrogates, known as emulators, are often used. Any statistical model, including an emulator, should be validated before…

Many random processes can be simulated as the output of a deterministic model accepting random inputs. Such a model usually describes a complex mathematical or physical stochastic system and the randomness is introduced in the input…

The growing field of large-scale time domain astronomy requires methods for probabilistic data analysis that are computationally tractable, even with large datasets. Gaussian Processes are a popular class of models used for this purpose…

The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…

In this paper, we consider discrete-time non-linear stochastic dynamical systems with additive process noise in which both the initial state and noise distributions are uncertain. Our goal is to quantify how the uncertainty in these…

Electricity systems are experiencing increased effects of randomness and variability due to emerging stochastic assets. The increased effects introduce new uncertainties into power systems that can impact system operability and reliability.…

The path probability of stochastic motion of non dissipative or quasi-Hamiltonian systems is investigated by numerical experiment. The simulation model generates ideal one-dimensional motion of particles subject only to conservative forces…

Sample-based Bayesian inference provides a route to uncertainty quantification in the geosciences, and inverse problems in general, though is very computationally demanding in the naive form that requires simulating an accurate computer…

As Gaussian processes are used to answer increasingly complex questions, analytic solutions become scarcer and scarcer. Monte Carlo methods act as a convenient bridge for connecting intractable mathematical expressions with actionable…

Stochastic versions of recursive integrated climate-economy assessment models are essential for studying and quantifying policy decisions under uncertainty. However, as the number of state variables and stochastic shocks increases, solving…

Adding inequality constraints (e.g. boundedness, monotonicity, convexity) into Gaussian processes (GPs) can lead to more realistic stochastic emulators. Due to the truncated Gaussianity of the posterior, its distribution has to be…

Gaussian process state-space models (GP-SSMs) are a very flexible family of models of nonlinear dynamical systems. They comprise a Bayesian nonparametric representation of the dynamics of the system and additional (hyper-)parameters…

Estimating percentiles of black-box deterministic functions with random inputs is a challenging task when the number of function evaluations is severely restricted, which is typical for computer experiments. This article proposes two new…

We consider the problem of forecasting debt recovery from large portfolios of non-performing unsecured consumer loans under management. The state of the art in industry is to use stochastic processes to approximately model payment behaviour…

In stochastic simulation, input uncertainty refers to the propagation of the statistical noise in calibrating input models to impact output accuracy, in addition to the Monte Carlo simulation noise. The vast majority of the input…

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is…

Recently the general form of a translation-covariant quantum Boltzmann equation has been derived which describes the dynamics of a tracer particle in a quantum gas. We develop a stochastic wave function algorithm that enables full…

We propose a modeling framework for stochastic systems, termed Gaussian behaviors, that describes finite-length trajectories of a system as a Gaussian process. The proposed model naturally quantifies the uncertainty in the trajectories, yet…

This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic economic model predictive control (SEMPC) that minimizes average economic cost while satisfying an empirical expected shortfall (EES) constraint to manage risk. A new scenario-based problem…