相关论文: Publish and Perish: Creative Destruction and Macro…
We explore the statistical and economic importance of restrictions on the dynamics of risk compensation from the perspective of a real-time Bayesian learner who predicts bond excess returns using dynamic term structure models (DTSMs). The…
This is the fourth paper, the last one, on solution to the problem of absence of detailed balance in nonequilibrium processes. It is an approach based on another known universal dynamics: The evolutionary dynamics first conceived by Darwin…
This paper is based on the premise that economic growth is driven by an interplay between innovation and imitation in an economy composed of interacting firms operating in a stochastic environment. A novel approach to modeling imitation is…
Macroeconomic dynamics is typically modeled under the assumption that the economy evolves according to a single invariant law of motion. This paper shows that this assumption imposes a structural restriction. We develop Dynamic…
Generating synthetic data through generative models is gaining interest in the ML community and beyond, promising a future where datasets can be tailored to individual needs. Unfortunately, synthetic data is usually not perfect, resulting…
Discrete-state stochastic models are a popular approach to describe the inherent stochasticity of gene expression in single cells. The analysis of such models is hindered by the fact that the underlying discrete state space is extremely…
Following the statistical mechanics methodology, firstly introduced in macroeconomics by Aoki [1996,2002], we provide some insights to the well known works of Greenwald and Stiglitz [1990, 1993]. Specifically, we reach analytically a closed…
Economic growth and the growth of human population in the past 2,000,000 years are extensively examined. Data are found to be in a clear contradiction of the currently accepted explanations of the mechanism of growth, which revolve around…
We prove that the standard discrete-time accelerator equation cannot be considered as an exact discrete analog of the continuous-time accelerator equation. This leads to fact that the standard discrete-time macroeconomic models cannot be…
Recent years have witnessed a surge in the popularity of Machine Learning (ML), applied across diverse domains. However, progress is impeded by the scarcity of training data due to expensive acquisition and privacy legislation. Synthetic…
Various formulations of counterfactual general equilibrium in economies -- systems of actors manipulating economic goods -- are logically and mathematically analyzed. Evenly-rotating economies are systems whose evolution is stable, steady,…
Standard economic theory uses mathematics as its main means of understanding, and this brings clarity of reasoning and logical power. But there is a drawback: algebraic mathematics restricts economic modeling to what can be expressed only…
Will a large economy be stable? Building on Robert May's original argument for large ecosystems, we conjecture that evolutionary and behavioural forces conspire to drive the economy towards marginal stability. We study networks of firms in…
Historical economic growth in Asia (excluding Japan) is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used (but not analysed) during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not…
We present a mathematical model of a market with $m$ shares traded across $n$ investor groups, each one with similar motivations and trading strategies. The market of each asset consists of a fixed amount of cash and shares (no additions…
A stochastic dynamics has a natural decomposition into a drift capturing mean rate of change and a martingale increment capturing randomness. They are two statistically uncorrelated, but not necessarily independent mechanisms contributing…
Global historical series spanning the last two centuries recently became available for primary energy consumption (PEC) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Based on a thorough analysis of the data, we propose a new, simple macroeconomic model…
We develop a methodology that utilizes deep learning to simultaneously solve and estimate canonical continuous-time general equilibrium models in financial economics. We illustrate our method in two examples: (1) industrial dynamics of…
Generalizations of the microcanonical and canonical ensembles for paths of Markov processes have been proposed recently to describe the statistical properties of nonequilibrium systems driven in steady states. Here we propose a theory of…
We formulate thermodynamics of economic systems in terms of an arbitrary probability distribution for a conserved economic quantity. As in statistical physics, thermodynamic macroeconomic variables emerge as the mean value of microeconomic…