相关论文: Publish and Perish: Creative Destruction and Macro…
Critical states are sometimes identified experimentally through power-law statistics or universal scaling functions. We show here that such features naturally emerge from networks in self-sustained irregular regimes away from criticality.…
Macroevolution is considered as a problem of stochastic dynamics in a system with many competing agents. Evolutionary events (speciations and extinctions) are triggered by fitness records found by random exploration of the agents' fitness…
We analyze a simple macroeconomic model where rational inflation expectations is replaced by a boundedly rational, and genuinely sticky, response to changes in the actual inflation rate. The stickiness is introduced in a novel way using a…
The optimal (`equilibrium') macroscopic properties of an economy with $N$ industries endowed with different technologies, $P$ commodities and one consumer are derived in the limit $N\to\infty$ with $n=N/P$ fixed using the replica method.…
The two-body potential of systems with long-range interactions decays at large distances as $V(r)\sim 1/r^\alpha$, with $\alpha\leq d$, where $d$ is the space dimension. Examples are: gravitational systems, two-dimensional hydrodynamics,…
We consider dynamic stochastic economies with heterogeneous agents and introduce the concept of uniformly self-justified equilibria (USJE) -- temporary equilibria for which forecasts are best uniform approximations to a selection of the…
Stochastic dynamical systems arise naturally across nearly all areas of science and engineering. Typically, a dynamical system model is based on some prior knowledge about the underlying dynamics of interest in which probabilistic features…
Throughout history, many countries have repeatedly experienced large swings in asset prices, which are usually accompanied by large fluctuations in macroeconomic activity. One of the characteristics of the period before major economic…
Historical economic growth in Latin America is analysed using the data of Maddison. Unified Growth Theory is found to be contradicted by these data in the same way as it is contradicted by the economic growth in Africa, Asia, former USSR,…
Are there hidden dynamical common patterns in the evolution of social and cultural history? While the growing availability of digitized social data invites us to answer this question, prevailing quantitative methods often rely on…
We show that world trade network datasets contain empirical evidence that the dynamics of innovation in the world economy follows indeed the concept of creative destruction, as proposed by J.A. Schumpeter more than half a century ago.…
The concept of deterministic dynamical chaos has a long history and is well established by now. Nevertheless, its field theoretic essence and its stochastic generalization have been revealed only very recently. Within the newly found…
This paper presents a framework for empirical analysis of dynamic macroeconomic models using Bayesian filtering, with a specific focus on the state-space formulation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models with multiple…
The monograph is concerned with some key problems of the theory of nonlinear economic dynamics. The authors' concept consists in analyzing the problem of structural instability of economic systems within the framework of the synergetic…
Vector autogressions (VARs) are widely applied when it comes to modeling and forecasting macroeconomic variables. In high dimensions, however, they are prone to overfitting. Bayesian methods, more concretely shrinkage priors, have shown to…
There are two main approaches to non-equlibrium statistical mechanics: one using stochastic processes and the other using dynamical systems. To model the dynamics during inflation one usually adopts a stochastic description, which is known…
Many economic theories have been introduced over the course of history to articulate our understanding of the economy. Classical theories by Adam Smith and David Ricardo's Comparative Advantage have been foundational for the last century's…
The main points of the first section of the article written by S.I. Chernyshov, A.V. Voronin and S.A. Razumovsky arXiv:1003.4382), which deals with the fundamental bases of the macroeconomic theory, have been analyzed. An incorrectness of…
In Boltzmannian statistical mechanics macro-states supervene on micro-states. This leads to a partitioning of the state space of a system into regions of macroscopically indistinguishable micro-states. The largest of these regions is…
Traditional statistical estimation, or statistical inference in general, is static, in the sense that the estimate of the quantity of interest does not change the future evolution of the quantity. In some sequential estimation problems…