相关论文: Generalized group-based epidemic model for spreadi…

Individuals involved in common group activities/settings -- e.g., college students that are enrolled in the same class and/or live in the same dorm -- are exposed to recurrent contacts of physical proximity. These contacts are known to…

This paper presents a compact pairwise model that describes the spread of multi-stage epidemics on networks. The multi-stage model corresponds to a gamma-distributed infectious period which interpolates between the classical Markovian…

Mathematical modeling of epidemic propagation on networks is extended to hypergraphs in order to account for both the community structure and the nonlinear dependence of the infection pressure on the number of infected neighbours. The exact…

We develop a stochastic epidemic model progressing over dynamic networks, where infection rates are heterogeneous and may vary with individual-level covariates. The joint dynamics are modeled as a continuous-time Markov chain such that…

The vast majority of models for the spread of communicable diseases are parametric in nature and involve underlying assumptions about how the disease spreads through a population. In this article we consider the use of Bayesian…

Group testing was conceived during World War II to identify soldiers infected with syphilis using as few tests as possible, and it has attracted renewed interest during the COVID-19 pandemic. A long-standing assumption in the probabilistic…

The interplay of biological, social, structural and random factors makes disease forecasting extraordinarily complex. The course of an epidemic exhibits average growth dynamics determined by features of the pathogen and the population, yet…

Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental…

The design of an efficient curing policy, able to stem an epidemic process at an affordable cost, has to account for the structure of the population contact network supporting the contagious process. Thus, we tackle the problem of…

Group testing, a problem with diverse applications across multiple disciplines, traditionally assumes independence across nodes' states. Recent research, however, focuses on real-world scenarios that often involve correlations among nodes,…

One of the major issues in the theoretical modeling of epidemic spreading is the development of methods to control the transmission of an infectious agent. Human behavior plays a fundamental role in the spreading dynamics and can be used to…

Mathematical modeling of disease spreading plays a crucial role in understanding, controlling and preventing epidemic outbreaks. In a microscopic description of the propagation of a disease over the complex network of human contacts, the…

We consider multiple diseases spreading in a static Configuration Model network. We make standard assumptions that infection transmits from neighbor to neighbor at a disease-specific rate and infected individuals recover at a…

We investigate the time evolution of disease spread on a network by using the concept of generations. We derive a set of equations, which can be used to determine the average epidemic size. We find a very good agreement between the…

Pandemics, in addition to affecting the health of populations, can have huge impacts on their social and economic behavior. These factors, on the other hand, have the potential to feed back to and influence the disease spreading. It is…

Although traditional models of epidemic spreading focus on the number of infected, susceptible and recovered individuals, a lot of attention has been devoted to integrate epidemic models with population genetics. Here we develop an…

We investigate the full temporal evolution of epidemic outbreaks in complex networks, focusing on the susceptible-infected (SI) model of disease transmission. Combining theoretical analysis with large-scale numerical simulations, we uncover…

We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold…

An individual-based model of the infectious disease spread among the urban population is considered. A system of stochastic equations, which describes changes in quantities of four population groups, susceptible, exposed, infected…

In this paper we study the household-structure SIS epidemic spreading on general complex networks. The household structure gives us the way to distinguish inner and the outer infection rate. Unlike household-structure models on homogenous…