相关论文: Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from ra…

Coupled dynamical systems in ecology are known to respond to the seasonal forcing of their parameters with multiple dynamical behaviours, ranging from seasonal cycles to chaos. Seasonal forcing is predominantly modelled as a sine wave but…

The annual occurrence of many infectious diseases remains a constant burden to public health systems. The seasonal patterns in respiratory disease incidence observed in temperate regions have been attributed to the impact of environmental…

Understanding the social determinants of preventive behavior is vital for epidemic modelling and effective policy making. Traditional models emphasize imitation or rational trade-offs, but recent evidence highlights the role of social…

Seasonal variations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a well-established phenomenon, driven by factors such as climate changes, social behaviors, and ecological interactions that influence host susceptibility and transmission…

The study of epidemiological systems has generated deep interest in exploring the dynamical complexity of common infectious diseases driven by seasonally varying contact rates. Mathematical modeling and field observations have shown that,…

The transmission of vector infectious diseases, which produces complex spatiotemporal patterns, is analyzed by a periodically forced two-dimensional cellular automata model. The system, which comprises three population levels, is introduced…

In temperate regions, respiratory virus epidemics recur on a yearly basis, primarily during the winter season. This is believed to be induced by seasonal forcing, where the rate at which the virus can be transmitted varies cyclically across…

The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that…

We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…

Many pathogens spread primarily via direct contact between infected and susceptible hosts. Thus, the patterns of contacts or contact network of a population fundamentally shapes the course of epidemics. While there is a robust and growing…

Standard epidemic models based on compartmental differential equations are investigated under continuous parameter change as external forcing. We show that seasonal modulation of the contact parameter superimposed a monotonic decay needs a…

The fundamental models of epidemiology describe the progression of an infectious disease through a population using compartmentalized differential equations, but do not incorporate population-level heterogeneity in infection susceptibility.…

Common respiratory viruses cause seasonal epidemics in sequential patterns. The underlying mechanisms for this pattern have been debated for some time. For influenza, contenders include temperature, humidity, and vitamin D levels. While…

Forecasting transmission of infectious diseases, especially for vector-borne diseases, poses unique challenges for researchers. Behaviors of and interactions between viruses, vectors, hosts, and the environment each play a part in…

A pressing question resulting from global warming is how infectious diseases will be affected by climate change. Answering this question requires research into the effects of weather on the population dynamics of transmission and infection;…

Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,…

Traditional epidemic models consider that individual processes occur at constant rates. That is, an infected individual has a constant probability per unit time of recovering from infection after contagion. This assumption certainly fails…

Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…

It is well known that behavioral changes in contact patterns may significantly affect the spread of an epidemic outbreak. Here we focus on simple endemic models for recurrent epidemics, by modelling the social contact rate as a function of…

Low-order climate models can play an important role in understanding low-frequency variability in the atmospheric circulation and how forcing consistent with anthropogenic climate change may affect this variability. Here, we study a…