相关论文: Records for the moving average of a time series

For a sample of Exponentially distributed durations we aim at point estimation and a confidence interval for its parameter. A duration is only observed if it has ended within a certain time interval, determined by a Uniform distribution.…

We find a general formula for the distribution of time-averaged observables for systems modeled according to the sub-diffusive continuous time random walk. For Gaussian random walks coupled to a thermal bath we recover ergodicity and…

We characterize the exponential distribution as the only one which satisfies a regression condition. This condition involves the regression function of a fixed record value given two other record values, one of them being previous and the…

Let $X_1,X_2,\dots$ be independent and identically distributed random variables on the real line with a joint continuous distribution function $F$. The stochastic behavior of the sequence of subsequent records is well known. Alternatively…

A new type of moving average is developed. Whereas a regular moving average (e.g. of price) has a built-in internal time scale (time-window, exponential weight, etc.), the moving average developed in this paper has the weight as the product…

Two dimensional condensed matter is realised in increasingly diverse forms that are accessible to experiment and of potential technological value. The properties of these systems are influenced by many length scales and reflect both generic…

We study records generated by Brownian particles in one dimension. Specifically, we investigate an ordinary random walk and define the record as the maximal position of the walk. We compare the record of an individual random walk with the…

The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…

We study analytically the order statistics of a time series generated by the successive positions of a symmetric random walk of n steps with step lengths of finite variance \sigma^2. We show that the statistics of the gap d_{k,n}=M_{k,n}…

Drees and Rootz\'en (2010) have established limit theorems for a general class of empirical processes of statistics that are useful for the extreme value analysis of time series, but do not apply to statistics of sliding blocks, including…

The (general) hypoexponential distribution is the distribution of a sum of independent exponential random variables. We consider the particular case when the involved exponential variables have distinct rate parameters. We prove that the…

We study time series concerning rare events. The occurrence of a rare event is depicted as a jump of constant intensity always occurring in the same direction, thereby generating an asymmetric diffusion process. We consider the case where…

We review recent advances on the record statistics of strongly correlated time series, whose entries denote the positions of a random walk or a L\'evy flight on a line. After a brief survey of the theory of records for independent and…

We study the dynamics of the linear and non-linear serial dependencies in financial time series in a rolling window framework. In particular, we focus on the detection of episodes of statistically significant two- and three-point…

We compute exactly the mean number of records $\langle R_N \rangle$ for a time-series of size $N$ whose entries represent the positions of a discrete time random walker on the line. At each time step, the walker jumps by a length $\eta$…

We consider the distribution of the duration time, the time elapsed since it began, of a diffusion process given its present position, under the assumption that the process began at the origin. For unbiased diffusion, the distribution does…

We address the question of distance record-setting by a random walker in the presence of measurement error, $\delta$, and additive noise, $\gamma$ and show that the mean number of (upper) records up to $n$ steps still grows universally as…

We investigate the statistics of three kinds of records associated with planar random walks, namely diagonal, simultaneous and radial records. The mean numbers of these records grow as universal power laws of time, with respective exponents…

We study the propagation of waves in a medium in which the wave velocity fluctuates randomly in time. We prove that at long times, the statistical distribution of the wave energy is log-normal, with the average energy growing exponentially.…

For a partial structural change in a linear regression model with a single break, we develop a continuous record asymptotic framework to build inference methods for the break date. We have T observations with a sampling frequency h over a…