相关论文: Epidemic model on a network: analysis and applicat…

The COVID-19 pandemic represents the most significant public health disaster since the 1918 influenza pandemic. During pandemics such as COVID-19, timely and reliable spatio-temporal forecasting of epidemic dynamics is crucial. Deep…

The design of an efficient curing policy, able to stem an epidemic process at an affordable cost, has to account for the structure of the population contact network supporting the contagious process. Thus, we tackle the problem of…

We introduce a new percolation model to describe and analyze the spread of an epidemic on a general directed and locally finite graph. We assign a two-dimensional random weight vector to each vertex of the graph in such a way that the…

Exploiting the power of the expectation operator and indicator (or Bernoulli) random variables, we present the exact governing equations for both the SIR and SIS epidemic models on \emph{networks}. Although SIR and SIS are basic epidemic…

Motivated by the need for novel robust approaches to modelling the Covid-19 epidemic, this paper treats a population of $N$ individuals as an inhomogeneous random social network (IRSN). The nodes of the network represent different types of…

The widely spread CoronaVirus Disease (COVID)-19 is one of the worst infectious disease outbreaks in history and has become an emergency of primary international concern. As the pandemic evolves, academic communities have been actively…

Modern Bayesian approaches and workflows emphasize in how simulation is important in the context of model developing. Simulation can help researchers understand how the model behaves in a controlled setting and can be used to stress the…

The COVID-19 pandemic has witnessed the role of online social networks (OSNs) in the spread of infectious diseases. The rise in severity of the epidemic augments the need for proper guidelines, but also promotes the propagation of fake…

We introduce a 2-layer network model for the study of the immunization dynamics in epidemics. Spreading of an epidemic is modeled as an excitatory process in a small-world network (body layer) while immunization by prevention for the…

It is of vital importance to understand and track the dynamics of rapidly unfolding epidemics. The health and economic consequences of the current COVID-19 pandemic provide a poignant case. Here we point out that since they are based on…

Designing effective strategies for controlling epidemic spread by vaccination is an important question in epidemiology, especially in the early stages when vaccines are limited. This is a challenging question when the contact network is…

We introduce a numerical method to solve epidemic models on the underlying topology of complex networks. The approach exploits the mean-field like rate equations describing the system and allows to work with very large system sizes, where…

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19, there have been many scientific publications studying the COVID-19. The purpose of this study is to identify the research trend, collaboration pattern, most influential elements, etc. from scientific…

We propose a forecasting method for predicting epidemiological health series on a two-week horizon at the regional and interregional resolution. The approach is based on model order reduction of parametric compartmental models, and is…

Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach…

Many countries have experienced at least two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. The second wave is far more dangerous as distinct strains appear more harmful to human health, but it stems from the complacency about the first wave. This paper…

Parameter inference and state estimation in stochastic and partially observed biological systems remain major problems in mathematical biology. In this work, we introduce a two-dimensional lattice graph model for the spread of infectious…

Research in epidemiology often focusses on designing interventions that result in the number of infected individuals asymptotically approaching zero, without considering that this number may peak at high values during transients. Recent…

This paper presents a study on a compartmental epidemic model for COVID-19, examining the stability of its equilibrium points upon the introduction of vaccination as a strategy to mitigate the spread of the disease. Initially, the SIQR…

We propose a deterministic compartmental model of infectious disease which considers the test-kits as an important ingredient for the suppression and mitigation of epidemics. A rigorous simulation (with analytical argument) is provided to…