相关论文: Cramer-Lundberg model for some classes of extremal…

We address the problem of parameter estimation for diffusion driven stochastic volatility models through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). To avoid degeneracy issues we introduce an innovative reparametrisation defined through…

A discrete time branching process where the offspring distribution is generation-dependent, and the number of reproductive individuals is controlled by a random mechanism is considered. This model is a Markov chain but, in general, the…

This paper presents a convenient framework for modeling default process and pricing derivative securities involving credit risk. The framework provides an integrated view of credit valuation adjustment by linking distance-to-default,…

We study a novel large dimensional approximate factor model with regime changes in the loadings driven by a latent first order Markov process. By exploiting the equivalent linear representation of the model, we first recover the latent…

In general insurance companies, a correct estimation of liabilities plays a key role due to its impact on management and investing decisions. Since the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 and the strengthening of regulation, the focus is not only…

Whereas classical Markov decision processes maximize the expected reward, we consider minimizing the risk. We propose to evaluate the risk associated to a given policy over a long-enough time horizon with the help of a central limit…

The field of risk theory has traditionally focused on ruin-related quantities. In particular, the socalled Expected Discounted Penalty Function has been the object of a thorough study over the years. Although interesting in their own right,…

In this paper, we consider statistical estimation of time-inhomogeneous aggregate Markov models. Unaggregated models, which corresponds to Markov chains, are commonly used in multi-state life insurance to model the biometric states of an…

In this paper, we study the ruin problem with investment in a general framework where the business part X is a L{\'e}vy process and the return on investment R is a semimartingale. We obtain upper bounds on the finite and infinite time ruin…

We consider the classical optimal dividends problem under the Cram\'er-Lundberg model with exponential claim sizes subject to a constraint on the time of ruin. We introduce the dual problem and show that the complementary slackness…

A new branch based on Markov processes is developing in the recent literature of financial time series modeling. In this paper, an Indexed Markov Chain has been used to model high frequency price returns of quoted firms. The peculiarity of…

We reconsider the study of optimal dividend strategies in the Cram\'er-Lundberg risk model. It is well-known that the solution of the classical dividend problem is in general a band strategy. However, the numerical techniques for the…

The behaviour of a stochastic dynamical system may be largely influenced by those low-probability, yet extreme events. To address such occurrences, this paper proposes an infinite-horizon risk-constrained Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR)…

Many probabilistic inference problems such as stochastic filtering or the computation of rare event probabilities require model analysis under initial and terminal constraints. We propose a solution to this bridging problem for the widely…

We study a new technique for the asymptotic analysis of heavy-tailed systems conditioned on large deviations events. We illustrate our approach in the context of ruin events of multidimensional regularly varying random walks. Our approach…

We tackle the problem of estimating risk measures of the infinite-horizon discounted cost within a Markov cost process. The risk measures we study include variance, Value-at-Risk (VaR), and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). First, we show…

We develop a generalization of the Black-Cox structural model of default risk. The extended model captures uncertainty related to firm's ability to avoid default even if company's liabilities momentarily exceeding its assets. Diffusion in a…

In piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) the state of a finite-dimensional system evolves continuously, but the evolutive equation may change randomly as a result of discrete switches. A running cost is integrated along the…

This paper deals with the generalized convolutions connected with the Williamson transform and the maximum operation. We focus on such convolutions which can define transition probabilities of renewal processes. They should be monotonic…

This PhD Thesis presents an investigation into the analysis of financial returns using mixture models, focusing on mixtures of generalized normal distributions (MGND) and their extensions. The study addresses several critical issues…