相关论文: Quantifying and predicting success in show busines…
Television is an ever-evolving multi billion dollar industry. The success of a television show in an increasingly technological society is a vast multi-variable formula. The art of success is not just something that happens, but is studied,…
Luck is considered to be a crucial ingredient to achieve impact in all creative domains, despite their diversity. For instance, in science, the movie industry, music, and art, the occurrence of the highest impact work and of a hot streak…
The hot streak, loosely defined as winning begets more winnings, highlights a specific period during which an individual's performance is substantially higher than her typical performance. While widely debated in sports, gambling, and…
'There is no terror in the bang, only is the anticipation of it' - Alfred Hitchcock. Yet there is everything in correctly anticipating the bang a movie would make in the box-office. Movies make a high profile, billion dollar industry and…
This paper proposes a decision support system to aid movie investment decisions at the early stage of movie productions. The system predicts the success of a movie based on its profitability by leveraging historical data from various…
The film industry is one of the most popular entertainment industries and one of the biggest markets for business. Among the contributing factors to this would be the success of a movie in terms of its popularity as well as its box office…
In social, economic and cultural situations in which the decisions of individuals are influenced directly by the decisions of others, there appears to be an inherently high level of ex ante unpredictability. In cultural markets such as…
In the contemporary film industry, accurately predicting a movie's earnings is paramount for maximizing profitability. This project aims to develop a machine learning model for predicting movie earnings based on input features like the…
Upon film premiere, a major form of speculation concerns the relative success of the film. This relativity is in particular regards to the film's original budget, as many a time have big-budget blockbusters been met with exceptional success…
Scientific and technological progress is largely driven by firms in many domains, including artificial intelligence and vaccine development. However, we do not know yet whether the success of firms' research activities exhibits dynamic…
Understanding the qualitative patterns of research endeavor of scientific authors in terms of publication count and their impact (citation) is important in order to quantify success trajectories. Here, we examine the career profile of…
In the recent article Janosov, Battiston, & Sinatra report that they separated the inputs of talent and luck in creative careers. They build on the previous work of Sinatra et al which introduced the Q-model. Under the model the popularity…
Participants in socio-economic systems are often ranked based on their performance. Rankings conveniently reduce the complexity of such systems to ordered lists. Yet, it has been shown in many contexts that those who reach the top are not…
Social influence is ubiquitous in cultural markets, from book recommendations in Amazon, to song popularities in iTunes and the ranking of newspaper articles in the online edition of the New York Times to mention only a few. Yet social…
Movie-making has become one of the most costly and risky endeavors in the entertainment industry. Continuous change in the preference of the audience makes it harder to predict what kind of movie will be financially successful at the box…
Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies has become a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. A natural application of this would be the…
Social influence has been shown to create significant unpredictability in cultural markets, providing one potential explanation why experts routinely fail at predicting commercial success of cultural products. To counteract the difficulty…
Are there general principles governing the process by which certain products or ideas become popular relative to other (often qualitatively similar) competitors? To investigate this question in detail, we have focused on the popularity of…
The largely dominant meritocratic paradigm of highly competitive Western cultures is rooted on the belief that success is due mainly, if not exclusively, to personal qualities such as talent, intelligence, skills, efforts or risk taking.…
With the rise of the competition in the movie production market, because of new players such as Netflix, Hulu, HBO Max, and Amazon Prime, whose primary goal is producing a large amount of exclusive content in order to gain a competitive…